2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Hungary_Ex_Post_Evaluation_of_Exceptional_Access_Under_the_2008_Stand_40页_893kb

报告摘要

Summary of Hungary: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2008 Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document provides an ex post evaluation of Hungary's 2008 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which was a response to the global financial crisis. The evaluation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team and published on May 24, 2011. It assesses the effectiveness of the program, the reasons for Hungary's request for Fund assistance, the appropriateness of the program design, and the lessons learned.

Main Objectives

Stabilize financial market conditions and avert a major banking crisis and regional contagion.
Strengthen the economy through fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.
Restoring market confidence and securing long-term external and public debt sustainability.

Key Points

Why Did Hungary Request Fund Assistance?

Hungary's high degree of financial and trade integration made it highly exposed to external shocks.
The banking sector was mostly foreign-owned and heavily dependent on international flows.
High public debt (close to 70% of GDP) and large current account deficits left little room to absorb shocks.
FX lending to unhedged retail borrowers created significant exchange rate risk exposures.
In October 2008, non-resident sell-offs of government securities and FX market pressures led to a liquidity crisis.
High FX volatility and uncertainty about bank losses prompted the need for Fund assistance.

Was the Program Design Appropriate?

The program aimed to strengthen the economy and restore normal market conditions.
It included fiscal consolidation and banking sector reforms.
The initial program was short-lived, with 18 months of support, but extended by six months as the crisis deepened.
Joint support from the EU was critical in ensuring a large front-loaded financing package.
The financing package was €20 billion, with 33% from the EU and €1 billion from the World Bank.
Exceptional access criteria were met, including exceptional balance of payments pressures, high probability of debt sustainability, good prospects of regaining access to capital markets, and a reasonably strong policy program.

Did the Program Achieve Its Objectives?

The program successfully stabilized financial conditions, averted a banking crisis, and reduced liquidity pressures.
Fiscal consolidation was achieved, although some structural reforms were later reversed.
Bank supervision and resolution were improved, and FX liquidity was supported.
The program was extended to address new cyclical conditions and transition to a new government.
Despite these achievements, the program lapsed due to disagreement with the new government about additional fiscal measures.
The Refinancing Guarantee Fund was ineffective due to low sovereign credit rating, and uncollateralized loans posed public finance risks.
Initial growth projections were too optimistic, highlighting the need for better macro-financial surveillance.

Lessons Learned

Collaboration between the IMF, EU, and Hungarian authorities was successful and set a precedent.
Fiscal targets under the EU framework need to be flexible in response to unanticipated developments.
Macro-prudential tools should be developed to limit systemic risks.
Bank support packages should be designed with adequate safeguards.
Program monitoring should use a more comprehensive set of fiscal targets.
Political consensus is essential for successful program implementation.
Continued fiscal consolidation and completion of financial reform agenda are needed to address stock vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

The 2008 SBA with Hungary was a successful joint program that stabilized the economy and prevented regional contagion. However, it also revealed areas for improvement, particularly in bank support design, fiscal target flexibility, and macro-financial surveillance. The program demonstrated the importance of international collaboration in addressing systemic financial crises, but also the challenges of political uncertainty and institutional constraints.

Key Information

IMF Staff Team prepared the report as background for the periodic consultation.
The SBA was approved on November 6, 2008, with SDR 10.5 billion (1015% of quota).
The program was extended due to political changes and new economic conditions.
Non-resident holdings of forint-denominated government securities were a major vulnerability.
The program included fiscal consolidation, bank capital enhancement, and supervision improvements.
The EFM was used in parallel to provide prompt crisis response.
The program's success was conditional on political agreement and effective policy implementation.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Initial Macroeconomic Conditions
Figure 2: Initial Pressures
Figure 3: Main Features of Selected Recent European Programs
Figure 4: Projected and Actual Real GDP Growth in Hungary and its Main Trading Partners
Figure 5: Fiscal Performance During the Program
Table 1: Main Economic Indicators, 2006-09
Table 2: Program Financing, 2008-09
Table 3: Quantitative Program Targets under SBA Approved on November 6, 2008
Table 4: Structural Conditionality, 2008-10