2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Ex_Post_Evaluation_of_Exceptional_Access_Under_the_2009_Stand_32页_1mb

Summary of Romania's Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2009 Stand-By Arrangement

I. Core Content

This document provides an ex post evaluation of Romania's 2009 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which was one of the largest in the IMF's history at the time. The evaluation assesses the appropriateness of the program design, the effectiveness of the policy response, and the achievement of the program's objectives. It also highlights the role of the IMF in supporting Romania during the 2008 global financial crisis.

II. Main Reasons for Fund Assistance Request

• Overheating Economy: Romania experienced an economic boom due to EU accession in 2007, fueled by loose income and fiscal policies.
• Macroeconomic Imbalances: High current account deficits (over 13% of GDP in 2007), significant external debt (about 130% of GDP), and rising fiscal imbalances.
• Financial System Vulnerabilities: Increased reliance on foreign currency loans, growing non-performing loans (NPLs), and limited liquidity in the banking sector.
• Severe Impact of the Crisis: The 2008 global financial crisis led to a sharp decline in domestic demand, asset values, and capital inflows, while causing a significant depreciation of the leu.
• Fiscal and External Pressures: Romania faced high sovereign yields (up to 9% in 2008), a downgrade in credit rating, and a large increase in public debt due to poor revenue collection and rising expenditure pressures.

III. Program Design and Objectives

• Main Objectives:

  1. Substantially reduce fiscal imbalances and restore market confidence.
  2. Strengthen the financial sector through improved bank resolution mechanisms and deposit insurance.
  3. Lower and maintain inflation within the target range.
  4. Secure external financing to cushion the adjustment process and achieve a more orderly outcome.

• Program Design:

  • The SBA was front-loaded with SDR 11.443 billion (1,110.8% of quota), including co-financing from the EU and other institutions.
  • The program emphasized structural reforms in areas such as tax administration, public wages, pensions, and social benefits.
  • It included both fiscal and structural conditionality, with a focus on medium-term fiscal sustainability.

IV. Adequacy of the Financing Package

• The SBA was approved in May 2009 and provided a large financing package to address Romania's balance of payments needs.
• A portion of the Fund's resources was used for budget financing due to the sharper-than-expected economic contraction.
• The program's front-loaded nature helped restore market confidence quickly, with Romania successfully accessing the Eurobond market in Spring 2010.

V. Exceptional Access Criteria

• Criterion 1: Romania faced significant balance of payments pressures, with a large financing gap that could not be met through normal means.
• Criterion 2: Public debt was deemed sustainable in the medium term, with low public debt levels and a strong track record in external debt servicing.
• Criterion 3: Romania had a strong prospect of regaining access to private capital markets, as evidenced by successful Eurobond and domestic instrument issuances.
• Criterion 4: The program had strong political and institutional support, and the conditionality was deemed appropriate for restoring economic stability.

VI. Appropriateness of Conditionality

• The conditionality focused on fiscal adjustment and financial sector stability.
• Fiscal conditionality included targets for reducing the general government balance and arrears, as well as structural reforms to improve fiscal sustainability.
• Financial sector conditionality aimed at strengthening the bank resolution framework, deposit insurance, and supervision, while also incorporating commitments from foreign parent banks to support their Romanian subsidiaries.

VII. Policy Response

• Macroeconomic Forecasts:

  • The initial growth forecast underestimated the severity of the recession.
  • The program quickly adjusted its forecasts, reflecting the actual economic decline.
  • The inflation forecast was revised upward due to the VAT increase, but the inflation band was adjusted accordingly to avoid triggering the consultation clause.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The fiscal adjustment was substantial and front-loaded, with a focus on spending cuts and revenue measures.
  • The program targets were revised upward in response to the deeper-than-expected downturn.
  • The fiscal deficit increased from 4.6% of GDP in 2009 to 6.8% in 2010, but the adjustment was deemed necessary and effective.

• Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy:

  • The central bank managed monetary policy carefully, balancing inflation control with supporting economic recovery.
  • FX reserves were built up significantly, reaching 30% of GDP by 2010 and providing a strong buffer against exchange rate volatility.

• Financial Sector:

  • The European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) played a critical role in stabilizing the banking system.
  • Foreign parent banks committed to maintaining their exposures and capitalizing their Romanian subsidiaries, which helped prevent a banking crisis.

VIII. Program Objectives Achievement

• The program successfully restored market confidence and achieved significant fiscal adjustment.
• Romania met its fiscal targets, including reducing the general government balance and managing arrears effectively.
• The financial sector remained stable, and the banking system weathered the crisis.
• The program contributed to greater medium-term fiscal sustainability, supported by structural reforms and adherence to the EU's Stability and Growth Pact.

IX. Conclusion

• The 2009 SBA was deemed appropriate in terms of design, financing, and conditionality.
• Strong ownership and political commitment, along with the large financing package, were key to the program's success.
• The program helped Romania avoid a disorderly adjustment and restore macroeconomic stability, setting the foundation for future growth and fiscal sustainability.