2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ireland_Ex_Post_Evaluation_of_Exceptional_Access_Under_the_2010_Extended_Arrangement_60页_1mb

2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Ex Post Evaluation of Ireland

Core Content

This document presents the Ex Post Evaluation of the 2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with Ireland, conducted by the IMF staff team. The evaluation was completed on December 15, 2014, and the report was authorized for distribution by the European Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. The program, which ran from December 2010 to December 2013, was part of a broader financing package involving Ireland and its European partners. It aimed to address the Irish banking crisis and break the adverse feedback loop between banks, the sovereign, and the real sector.

The exceptional access of SDR 19.466 billion (2,321.8 percent of quota) was approved by the IMF Executive Board in January 2015. The program was designed to restore the banking system to health, secure fiscal sustainability, and limit the demand drag from fiscal consolidation. It also aimed to preserve Ireland's competitive business environment.

Main Objectives of the Program

• Stabilize and reduce the size of the banking sector, ensuring high capital buffers and more stable funding sources.
• Secure fiscal sustainability while limiting the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic demand.
• Preserve a strong business environment by addressing remaining competitiveness and employment issues.

Key Program Outcomes

• Banking sector stabilization was achieved, with the size of the sector reduced.
• Fiscal developments were broadly in line with expectations.
• Market access was regained at low interest rates.
• Domestic demand was weaker than anticipated, and unemployment remained high despite a challenging external environment.

Program Implementation

• The implementation of the program was very strong, with all performance criteria met and most structural conditionality fulfilled.
• 97 percent of structural benchmarks were met, with only one not met.
• The program was streamlined and tailored to address Ireland's specific needs, with a focus on financial sector reforms.
• Political support was secured in advance through ex ante engagement with political parties.

Lessons from the Program

Lessons from What Worked Well

• Strong country ownership and tailored targets were key to program success.
• Effective communication and proactive engagement were critical.
• Early and credible actions in addressing the banking crisis were essential.

Improving Program Design

• Proactive supervisory interventions could have strengthened banks' balance sheets and profitability.
• Problem loans should have been resolved more effectively.
• Bank recapitalization should be limited to banks with viable medium-term strategies.
• Unsecured and non-guaranteed creditors of failed banks should be bailed in, provided systemic risk ring-fencing is in place.
• Macro-financial linkages must be carefully managed to limit feedback loops between the banking and sovereign sectors.
• Fiscal policy must be mindful of debt sustainability and domestic demand conditions, with a clear anchor for the program.

Lessons Related to Fund Policies

• The systemic exemption clause in Criterion 2 of the exceptional access criteria needed revisiting.
• Stronger upfront commitments from monetary union authorities could have improved the success prospects of the program.

Program Financing and Risks

• The EFF arrangement was part of a €85 billion financing package, with €45 billion from the EU and €17.5 billion from Irish authorities.
• The exceptional access was justified based on the high risk of international systemic spillovers and uncertainty about debt sustainability.
• Program risks were considered high, including uncertainty about bank losses, challenging public debt trajectory, downside risks to growth, and political risks from the pending general election.
• The buffer of €35 billion was available to support the banking system, with €25 billion expected for immediate recapitalization and €10 billion as a contingency.

External Context and Support

• The success of the program was also attributed to actions at the euro area level, such as market stabilization and monetary policy support.
• The Eurosystem provided significant liquidity support, which was crucial for the stability of the Irish banking sector.

Summary of Key Elements

• Program Duration: 36 months.
• Access Amount: SDR 19.466 billion (€22.5 billion).
• Frontloading: 26 percent of total access was disbursed upfront.
• Performance Criteria: All were met, with a weighted average of compliance.
• Structural Benchmarks: 97 percent were met, with only one not met.

Conclusion

The 2010 EFF program with Ireland was successful in stabilizing the financial sector and securing fiscal sustainability, but it also highlighted the need for improved program design and revised Fund policies. The evaluation underscores the importance of tailored conditionality, proactive supervision, and clear fiscal anchors in future programs.