CONVERA-贸易和B2B支付的未来（英）-2023-29页_930kb

报告摘要

Global trade and commerce have shown remarkable resilience despite disruptions from the pandemic, war, and inflation, with cross-border trade rebounding to a record value of $30.3 trillion in 2022.
Services trade is expected to grow faster than goods trade (7.2% vs. 3.8% annually from 2023-28), driven by digitalization and automation in B2B interactions, with the US projected to lead in services exports.
The low-carbon transition, including net-zero goals, will boost capital goods trade by a third by 2028, while raw materials trade faces modest growth due to demand plateauing and price effects.
Geopolitical factors, such as US-China technological rivalry and trade policies like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, are reshaping trade flows and regional patterns.

Post-pandemic trade in 2019-22 saw a 24% value increase in global trade, driven by final goods exports by China, while raw materials and intermediate goods also grew due to inflationary pressures.
European economies lagged in overall trade growth compared to Asia and North America, attributed to higher reliance on consumer and capital goods and less exposure to raw material price surges.
Services sectors like travel and transport faced mixed post-pandemic recoveries; air transport remains below pre-2020 levels, while digital services (e.g., B2B and ICT) saw rapid growth due to enhanced globalization and online commerce.

From 2023-28, total trade value is projected to reach $40 trillion, with services outpacing goods growth in most regions, supported by rapid digitalization.
Net-zero transitions and labor market tightness will drive capital goods trade acceleration, renewable capacity building, and electric vehicle adoption.
Emerging risks include slowed trade in raw materials-producing economies (e.g., Australia), while Asia's growing population and middle class will fuel demand and services expansion.
Geopolitical shifts, such as supply chain diversification and sanctions, could fragment trade patterns, with opportunities in high-growth sectors like China's EV exports and renewable manufacturing.

Businesses are increasingly adopting automated payment solutions, with Convera processing 49.1% of payments through APIs and integrated methods by 2023, up from 36.8% in 2019.
SWIFT GPI and CBDC development aim to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and interoperability, reducing processing times.
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain offer potential for real-time payments but face regulatory challenges, such as fragmented compliance.
Currency hedging and risk management demand increased due to volatile exchange rates from global monetary tightening.

Opportunities: Digital transformation, automation in payments, net-zero initiatives, and expanding middle-class markets in Asia.
Risks: Geopolitical tensions, trade sanctions, industrial policies favoring self-reliance, raw material supply chain disruptions, and economic recessions.