2025-05-20-Bernstein-Getlink（GET）_Getlink尼斯会议-关注关键绩效指标和展望_10页_354kb

Getlink (GET.FP) Conference Summary

Core Content

Getlink (GET.FP) was represented at the 2025 Nice Conference by Virginie Rousseau, the Capital Markets Director. The report provides an overview of the company's current performance, future outlook, and valuation details.

Main Points

Company Message

1. Trade War Impact

   • Getlink is not directly affected by the trade war or Trump-era tariff policies as it operates under a concession (2086) for the Channel Tunnel rail link.

2. FY25 Outlook

   • GET has provided EBITDA guidance for FY25 of between €780m and €830m.
   • This guidance factors in the EU's Entry/Exit System (EES) implementation and secured ELE revenues.
   • The company did not disclose underlying assumptions for its guidance, such as traffic, price yields, UK/FR price spreads, or ELE provisions.

3. Capital Allocation

   • The company continues to focus on capital expenditure (capex).
   • It reiterated its commitment to attractive shareholder remuneration but did not provide long-term payout guidance.
   • No share buyback plans are in place.
   • The company is cautious about cash management and is seeking balance sheet flexibility.
   • It is considering a new interconnector project involving the Tunnel.

4. Ferry Competition and Regulation

   • Getlink is monitoring the competitive dynamics in the Short Straits market, which remains fiercely competitive.
   • It is closely watching regulatory developments, including the seafarers' wages bill and carbon tax.
   • The implementation of the wage bill laws is expected to normalize competition practices.

5. New Railway Operators and Routes

   • Virgin Group, FS Italiane Group/Evolyn, and Gemini are developing plans to operate future passenger trains through the Channel Tunnel, which may increase competition with Eurostar.
   • GET is exploring new routes, including Germany and Switzerland, which could bring additional earnings based on tariff formulas.

6. Traffic and Yields

   • Traffic for the first quarter of 2025 showed mixed results: +4% for cars and -1% for trucks.
   • Eurostar reported a 3.5% annual growth in 1Q25 (+3.4% vs 1Q19).
   • GET's strategy focuses on optimizing EBITDA and implementing a pricing policy that reflects service value, speed, ease, and reliability.

7. ElecLink Status

   • ElecLink project activity was suspended for two weeks and is expected to resume on 2 June.
   • The commercial impact of the suspension is estimated at around €20m.
   • ElecLink has secured €200m in revenue for FY25 (83% of annual capacity) and €125m for FY26 (35% of annual capacity), contingent on effective service delivery.

8. Entry/Exit System (EES)

   • GET is preparing for the EES implementation in October 2025.
   • It is confident in its ability to manage traffic and maintain terminal fluidity post-EES.

Analyst Comments

• The analyst maintains a Market-Perform rating with a €17.10 price target.
• The current economic environment is complex and uncertain, with mixed tailwinds and headwinds.
• Key factors to monitor include shuttle trends, ELE newsflow, competitive dynamics, macroeconomic drivers, capital allocation, new HSR entrants, EES implementation, and shareholder structure.
• GET's 1H25 results are expected on 24 July.

Key Information

• Current Price: €17.39
• Price Target: €17.10
• Upside/Downside: -2%
• 52-Week Range: €17.52 / €14.52
• EDM (Enterprise Value): €1,428.15
• Market Cap (EUR): €9,565M
• EV (EUR): €13,369M
• Performance (YTD): 12.9%
• Performance (1M): 7.1%
• Performance (6M): 14.0%
• Performance (12M): 4.0%
• EDM Performance: 18.5% (YTD), 8.5% (1M), 18.3% (6M), 9.6% (12M)
• Relative Performance: -5.6% (YTD), -1.4% (1M), -4.3% (6M), -5.6% (12M)

Valuation Methodology

• Valuation Approach: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) method.
• Core Fixed Link Business: Valued using a finite DCF model with a WACC of 7.4%, comprising ~90% of the SOTP-based EV value.
• ElecLink: Valued using a DCF model.
• Europorte Rail Freight Business: Valued using EV/EBITDA multiples.

Investment Implications

• The current rating reflects the company's balanced mix of strengths and challenges.
• The analyst remains in a wait-and-see mode due to the complex economic environment.
• Factors affecting the stock include:
  • Shuttle traffic and yield performance
  • ELE contract developments
  • Cross-channel market competition
  • Macroeconomic indicators (UK and French GDP, CPI, oil prices, bond yields)
  • Capital allocation strategy
  • Potential new HSR entrants and routes
  • EES implementation
  • Shareholder structure

Rating Definitions

Bernstein Brand

• Outperform: Expected to outpace the market index by more than 15 pp
• Market-Perform: Expected to perform within ±15 pp of the market index
• Underperform: Expected to trail the market index by more than 15 pp
• Coverage Suspended: No current coverage, ratings and price targets are not current
• Not Rated: Not accurately valued or predictable at present

Autonomous Brand

• Outperform (OP): Expected to outpace the relevant index by more than 10 pp
• Neutral (N): Expected to perform within ±10 pp of the relevant index
• Underperform (UP): Expected to trail the relevant index by more than 10 pp
• Feature Outperform (FOP): Core investment idea
• Feature Under Outperform (FUP): Core investment idea that may underperform

Conflict of Interest

• Bernstein and its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking securities-related products from Getlink.
• Some affiliates have managed or co-managed public offerings of Getlink securities.
• Certain affiliates act as market makers or liquidity providers for Getlink's equities and debt securities.

Distribution and Legal Information

• The report is distributed to relevant persons as defined in various jurisdictions, including EU, UK, Japan, Singapore, India, and others.
• It is intended for institutional investors only in some regions.
• Analysts are not compensated based on investment banking performance.
• The report is produced by an independent analyst, and all recommendations reflect personal views.
• The report is not intended for retail investors in certain regions, including the PRC.

Compliance and Contact

• Compliance Officer: Ms. Rupal Talati, contact: +91-22-68421451 or scbincompliance@bernsteinsg.com
• Investor Grievance Officer: Scbin-investorgrievance@bernsteinsg.com
• Company Registration No. (India): U65999MH2017FTC293762
• Website: www.bernsteinresearch.in for more information on SCB India.

Summary of Key Metrics