2025-05-22-Bernstein-英国电信集团（BT）_快速解读英国电信集团-替代网络竞争对收入和关键绩效指标造成影响_12页_425kb

BT Group PLC faces pressure from alternative network providers (altnets) on revenue and key performance indicators. The 2025 financial review highlights a mixed fourth-quarter performance, with group revenues in line with consensus but EBITDA declining due to increased line losses in Openreach, now at -243,000 compared to expectations. Consumer segment shows improvement with broadband growth returning to +5,000 lines and ARPU rising by 2.5% year-over-year. However, the Business segment saw EBITDA fall by 9.7% year-over-year. For FY2026 guidance, revenues are projected at negative 1.2% growth, missing consensus, and FCF guidance is also light. Management expects ongoing line losses at a 450,000 run rate, indicating continued competitive challenges. The investment outlook includes a GBp 185 price target and an Outperform recommendation, based on a DCF analysis with moderate growth assumptions and valuation multiples around 5.5x long-term EBITDA. Risks include further declines in Consumer EBITDA, weak fibre rollout returns, economic downturns in Business services, regulatory changes, and pension liabilities. This analysis is supported by specific financial data in appendices.