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Mid & Small Caps Nice Conference 2025 Feedback Summary

Overview

The 20th Mid & Small Caps Conference was held in Nice on 20 and 21 May 2025, bringing together 79 investors from 62 institutions to meet with management from 82 European Mid and Small Cap companies. The conference facilitated 722 interactions, with 41% being one-to-one, 37% one-to-few, and 21% group meetings. The largest number of companies were from the Industrials & Infrastructure and Technology/Software sectors.

Key Sectors and Companies

• Aerospace & Defense: Exosens (EXENS.FP)
• Automobiles & Components: Forvia (FRVIA.FP), OPmobility (OPM.FP), Stabilus (STM.GY)
• Business Services: Elis (ELIS.FP), Pluxee (PLX.FP), Ranstad (RAND.NA), Spie (SPIE.FP)
• Capital Goods: CAF (CAF.SQ), Durr (DUE.GY), KION Group (KGX.GY), Manitou (MTU.FP), Meren (MRN.FP), Nexans (NEX.FP)
• Chemicals: Clariant (CLN,SE), K+S (SDF,DE), Solvay (SOLB.BB)
• Financials: Antin (ANTIN.FP), Avanza (AZA.SS), Awens (AYV,FP), Banca Mediolanum (BMED.IM), Eurazeo (RF.PA), Tikehau (TKO.PA), Wendel (MF.FP)
• General Retail: Ceconomy (CEC.GY), Maisons du Monde (MDM.FP), SMCP (SMCP.FP)
• Healthcare, Medtech and Biotech: Ambu (AMBUB.DC), Clariane (CLARI.PA), Emei (EMEIS.FP), Gerresheimer (GXI.GY), Siegried Holding (SFZN.SE)
• Hotels & Leisure: Beneteau (BEN.FP), Edreams Odigoe (EDR.SM), FDJ United (FDJU.FP), The Italian Sea Group (TISG.MI), Trigano (TRI.FP), TUI Group (GUI1.GY)
• Household & Personal Care: Bic (BB,FP), Group Seb (SK.FP)
• Logistics: ID Logistics (IDL.FP)
• Luxury Goods: Interparfums (ITP.FP)
• Media: Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP), Banijay Group (BNJ.NA), Canal+ (CAN.LN), Hayas (HAVAS.NA), Ipsos (IPS,FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP)
• Oil Services: GTT (GTT.FP), SBM Offshore (SBMO.NA), Technip Energies (TE.FP), Vallourec (VK.FP), Viridien (VIRI.FP)
• Property/Real Estate: Icade (ICAD.FP), Nexity (NXI.FP)
• Semiconductors: Nordic Semi (NOD.OL)
• Technology/Software: Alten (ATE.FP), Atos (ATO.FP), Aubay (AUB.FP), Indra (IDR.SQ), Lectra (LSS.FP), Planisware (PLNW.PA), Reply (REY.IM), Sopra Steria Group (SOP.FP), VusionGroup (VU.FP), 74Software (74SW.FP)
• Telecom Services: Elisa (ELISA.FH)
• Transport: Air France-KLM (AF,FP), Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GY), Wizz Air (WIZZ.LN)

Impact Analysis

US Tariffs

• Negative Impact: Beneteau, Bic, Manitou, OPmobility, SMCP, Stabilus
• No Direct Impact: Roughly one-third of companies, predominantly exposed to European end-markets
• Positive Impact: Eutelsat (as a beneficiary of US-imposed tariffs)

Macroeconomic Conditions

• Negative Impact: Bic, Beneteau, Lectra
• No Impact: Most companies, with Ambu, GTT, and Verallia reporting little in the way of macro headwinds
• Positive Impact: GTT noted that the new US administration's policies are positive for the worldwide LNG industry

Geopolitical Tensions

• Positive Impact: Elisa, Eutelsat, Exosens (increased demand in the government/defence vertical)
• Neutral Impact: Most other companies

Top 10 Most Requested Companies

1. SPIE
2. Alten
3. Sopra Steria
4. Exosens
5. KION Group
6. Elis
7. Nexans
8. Trigano
9. GTT
10. VusionGroup

Synthetic Grade and Exposure to European Economies

• Most Favourable: Eutelsat, Elisa, Exosens, ID Logistics, Aramis
• Most Unfavourable: Bic, Stabilus, Beneteau, Lectra, OPmobility

Investment Implications

• Themes: US tariffs, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical tensions were the main topics discussed.
• Investor Interest: Strong interest from North-American investors in high-quality European SMID companies with strong competitive moats and market share.
• Recommended Reading:
  • 30 April 2025 - European Midcap top picks
  • 21 March 2025 – Midcap Research: Bernstein European SMID "Europe First" stock selection
  • 26 May 2025 - Strat' Shot - 1Q25 reporting season

Conference Highlights

Air France-KLM

• Rating: Market-Perform
• Price Target: €9.00
• Key Points:
  • Demand: Holding up well, with transatlantic demand shifting to US point of sale
  • Cost: Two main tailwinds, including fuel prices and non-fuel cost reductions
  • Cargo: Reasonably steady, with some front loading of volumes in 1Q
  • Capex and FCF: High investment phase until 2028, with FCF positive but impacted by deferred social charges and cargo year
  • Analyst Comment: Sensitive to macroeconomic risks and the economic cycle

Alten

• Rating: Outperform
• Price Target: €116.00
• Key Points:
  • Customer demand slowed due to anxiety around US tariffs
  • Outlook with Airbus is positive as long as production ramps up
  • Defence sector remains resilient despite delayed investments
  • Automotive industry is relocating R&D to low-cost countries, with Alten in competition
  • Effective management of consultant utilisation and project margins
  • Active exploration of acquisitions

Financials and Valuation Metrics

Air France-KLM

• Adjusted EPS: EUR 1.85 (2024A), EUR 5.23 (2025E), EUR 5.73 (2026E)
• EV/EBITDA: 3.3 (2024A), 2.6 (2025E), 2.4 (2026E)
• EBITDA (M): 4,263 (2024A), 5,386 (2025E), 5,825 (2026E)
• EV/EBIT: 8.7 (2024A), 6.1 (2025E), 5.3 (2026E)

Alten

• Adjusted EPS: EUR 6.42 (2024A), EUR 6.45 (2025E), EUR 7.24 (2026E)

• Revenues (M): 4,143 (2024A), 4,113 (2025E), 4,031 (2026E)

• EBIT Margin (%): 9.1 (2024A), 8.2 (2025E), 9.0 (2026E)

• FCF (M): 333.20 (2024A), 162.45 (2025E), 209.21 (2026E)

• Net Debt (Cash) (M): -275.26 (2024A), -391.74 (2025E), -551.66 (2026E)

• Adjusted P/E (x): 11.4 (2024A), 11.3 (2025E), 10.1 (2026E)

• EV/EBIT (x): 7.1 (2024A), 7.9 (2025E), 7.3 (2026E)

Conclusion

The conference highlighted the ongoing challenges and opportunities faced by European Mid and Small Cap companies in the context of US tariffs, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. While some companies faced significant headwinds, others benefited from the shifting dynamics, particularly in the government and defence sectors. The focus on high-quality, undervalued companies with strong European exposure was evident, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these stocks.