战略与国际研究中心-Erdogan-s-Referendum-Victory-and-Turkish-Politics_4页_178kb

TURKEY UPDATE Summary

Core Content

On September 12, 2010, Turkish voters approved a package of constitutional amendments proposed by the Justice and Development Party (JDP), with 57.88% in favor and 42.12% against, and 73.71% voter turnout. This marked another significant electoral victory for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has consistently won elections since his first mayoral campaign in 1994.

Main Points

• Erdogan's Leadership: Erdogan's campaign was successful due to his accurate assessment of public sentiment, his charisma, and his ability to mobilize support through rallies, interviews, and grassroots efforts.
• Referendum as a Leadership Test: The referendum effectively became a referendum on Erdogan's leadership, as he was able to frame it as a rejection of military interference in politics.
• Key Amendments: The reform package included both accepted and controversial amendments. The controversial ones were:
  • Allowing appeals against the Supreme Military Council's personnel discharge decisions.
  • Trial of military officers in civilian courts.
  • Changes to the composition of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors, increasing presidential and parliamentary control.
  • Making it more difficult to close political parties.
• Failed Amendment: The only amendment that did not pass was the one concerning the ban on political parties, which failed due to internal JDP defections. This was a critical issue for the JDP, as it had previously faced closure by the Constitutional Court.

Political Implications

• Opposition Weakness: The opposition parties, particularly the RPP and PDP, boycotted or opposed the amendments, inadvertently strengthening the JDP's position. This contrasted with previous constitutional amendment processes where cooperation was more common.
• Future Elections: The JDP is expected to win the 2011 parliamentary elections, maintaining its dominance. Erdogan has not rushed to hold elections immediately after the referendum, instead focusing on consolidating support.
• Presidential Ambitions: Erdogan has hinted at a future move to the presidency, which would require a shift to a presidential system. This system would likely grant the president greater powers, aligning with his vision for a more centralized government.
• JDP's Strategy: The JDP has broadened its appeal beyond its Islamist roots, capturing support from the center-right electorate. It has also managed to attract some nationalist voters from the NAP.

Challenges for the Opposition

• RPP's Leadership: Kemal Kilicdaroglu took over the RPP in May 2010 after the release of a compromising video of his predecessor, Deniz Baykal. Despite a strong base of support (estimated at over 30%), Kilicdaroglu lacks Erdogan's charisma and political acumen.
• Party Image: The RPP is viewed externally as xenophobic and unreliable, which hinders its ability to be a credible alternative to the JDP.
• Secular Concerns: The RPP is seen as a defender of an unsustainable secular status quo, while the country is undergoing social changes driven by growing religiosity.

Outlook

• Erdogan's Long-Term Strategy: The referendum victory may not be a one-time event but part of a broader strategy to consolidate power and shift the political structure towards a presidential system.
• JDP's Dominance: With a strong economic performance and media support, the JDP is well-positioned to continue its dominance in Turkish politics.
• Opposition's Future: The RPP's ability to challenge the JDP will depend on its capacity to redefine its image and expand its appeal to a broader electorate.

Key Information

• Referendum Result: 57.88% in favor, 42.12% against.
• Voter Participation: 73.71%.
• Erdogan's Electoral Record: Unbroken success since 1994.
• Opposition Behavior: Refrained from cooperation, which helped the JDP.
• Presidential Term: Could be reduced to 5 years if the Higher Electoral Council decides so.
• JDP's Strength: Financial, organizational, and media advantages.
• RPP's Challenges: Ineffective party apparatus, outdated image, and lack of political acumen.

Conclusion

The constitutional referendum was a strategic success for Erdogan and the JDP, reinforcing their political dominance and paving the way for future reforms. The opposition, particularly the RPP, faces significant challenges in becoming a credible alternative, especially in a rapidly changing political and social landscape. The referendum also highlighted the polarization in Turkish politics and the JDP's influence over both domestic and international perceptions of the country.