战略与国际研究中心-DIIG-Current-Issues-No-3_-Defense-Economics_2页_178kb

DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL INITIATIVES: CURRENT ISSUES SUMMARY

Core Content

This document discusses the rapid increase in U.S. defense spending during the third quarter of 2008, despite a slowdown in the broader economy. It challenges the assumption that defense spending is out of sync with the rest of the economy, explaining that the surge was due to delayed fiscal actions and the timing of the FY2008 defense supplemental appropriations act.

Main Points

• Defense Spending Growth: In the third quarter of 2008, defense spending increased by 18.0% on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis in constant dollars. This was significantly higher than the growth in federal spending (13.6%) and overall GDP (–0.5%).

• Comparison with 2007: A similar spike in defense spending occurred in the third quarter of 2007, where defense spending outpaced both federal spending and GDP growth.

• Reason for the Increase: The late approval of the FY2008 defense supplemental appropriations act at the end of June 2008 led to delayed spending. The Defense Department had been holding back funds until the supplemental was passed, resulting in a concentrated spending burst in the third quarter.

• Key Spending Categories:

  • Compensation: Increased by 7.8% year-over-year.
  • Petroleum: Rose by 37% in current dollars, with a 48.2% increase from Q3 2007 to Q3 2008.
  • Weapons Support: Showed 18.6% growth from Q3 2007 to Q3 2008, with 76% annualized growth in current dollars.
  • Personnel Support: Increased by 17.9% year-over-year.
  • Installation Support: Rose by 13.7% from Q3 2007 to Q3 2008, with 36% annualized growth in current dollars.

• Overall Spending Trends:

  • Total defense spending in Q3 2008 reached $180.8 billion in current dollars.
  • The largest contributors to the spending increase were the support categories, which accounted for 46% of the total rise.

Key Information

• The BEA tracks defense spending and provides GDP estimates that include this data.
• The annualized percentage change in defense spending is measured in constant dollars, which may differ from the current dollar figures used in the tables.
• The supplemental appropriations act was a major factor in the delayed spending, as it allowed the Department of Defense to reallocate funds and meet its obligations.
• The growth in defense spending was not an anomaly but rather a result of fiscal planning and timing.

Tables Summary

Conclusion

The document emphasizes that the significant increase in defense spending during Q3 2008 was not a sign of misalignment with the broader economy, but rather a consequence of delayed fiscal actions and the timing of the FY2008 defense supplemental appropriations. It also highlights the major contributors to this spending increase, particularly the support categories, and provides a detailed breakdown of the spending trends across different sectors.