战略与国际研究中心-Turkey-Update_-Turkish-Politics-in-2008_5页_121kb

Summary of the TURKEY UPDATE (December 24, 2008)

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of Turkish politics and economics in 2008, focusing on the Justice and Development Party (JDP) and its challenges in maintaining its position in a changing political and economic landscape.

Main Political Developments

JDP and Secularism

• The JDP, which had been in power since 2002, faced a significant challenge in 2008 when its attempt to lift the headscarf ban in universities was invalidated by the Constitutional Court.
• This move was seen as a direct challenge to secularism, which remains the official state ideology under Kemalism, enshrined in the 1961 and 1982 constitutions.
• The JDP's attempt to push the issue led to a "near death experience" with the Constitutional Court, which nearly closed the party but ultimately failed to do so.
• The ruling highlighted the JDP's growing tension with the Turkish General Staff (TGS), which has historically been the guardian of secularism.

Political Relationships and Reactions

• The JDP's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had a complex relationship with the TGS, particularly after the closure case.
• The only judge with a military background voted against closure, suggesting a possible behind-the-scenes agreement between Erdogan and the new TGS Chief of Staff, Ilker Basbug.
• Erdogan's stance on the Kurdish issue, particularly his nationalist declaration in November 2008, strained relations with Kurdish communities and led to internal party tensions.
• Several of the JDP's original leaders, including Abdullah Sener and Saban Disli, resigned, indicating potential internal divisions.

Opposition and Political Landscape

• The RPP, under Deniz Baykal, shifted focus to opposing the EU and the US while defending secularism.
• The NAP, led by Devlet Bahceli, struggled to match Erdogan's nationalist appeal.
• The JDP's dominance was challenged by the lack of effective opposition and its own internal issues.

Economic Situation

Economic Recovery and Challenges

• The JDP inherited a struggling economy in 2002 and implemented an IMF program, leading to significant recovery.
• Between 2003 and 2007, Turkey's economy grew at an average of 6.7% annually, with substantial increases in foreign direct investment and per capita income.
• The stock market reached 58,231 points in 2007, and short-term investment surged to $107 billion.

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis

• The 2008 global financial crisis severely impacted Turkey's economy, with the stock market dropping to 21,929 points in November 2008.
• Short-term funds fell to $59.5 billion, and the current account deficit widened dramatically.
• The unemployment rate rose to 12% in urban areas, and the real unemployment figure is likely higher.

Government Response

• Erdogan resisted a new IMF agreement in 2008, citing dissatisfaction with its demands.
• He claimed Turkey would not be significantly affected by the crisis, but by November, he acknowledged the adverse impact.
• Despite this, he delayed entering into a new agreement, focusing instead on municipal elections and public spending.

Looking Ahead

Municipal Elections and Political Stability

• The JDP faces a major test in the March 2009 municipal elections.
• A poor performance could be attributed to the economic downturn rather than the effectiveness of other parties.
• The document draws a parallel between the JDP and the Motherland Party (MP) of 1989, suggesting that the JDP may face a similar decline if it fails to adapt.

EU Accession and International Relations

• The stalled EU accession process is likely to come to a standstill in 2009 without progress on Cyprus.
• This could have critical implications for Turkey's modernization and integration into Western institutions.
• The JDP's economic preoccupations may hinder its efforts to accelerate EU negotiations.

Role of Nationalism and Religion

• Turkish nationalism remains a key political force, reinforced by anti-American and anti-Western sentiments.
• The JDP's success in integrating religious sentiment into politics has made it difficult for the secular system to adapt.
• The current political situation is described as inherently unstable without a new national consensus.

Key Information

• The JDP's challenge to secularism and its near-closure by the Constitutional Court marked a turning point in Turkish politics.
• Internal divisions within the JDP, including the resignation of key figures, indicate growing instability.
• The economic downturn poses a significant threat to the JDP's popularity and its ability to maintain power.
• The EU accession process is at risk of stagnation due to unresolved issues like Cyprus.
• The document highlights the tension between the JDP and the TGS, as well as the broader implications of the party's policies on Turkish society and international relations.

Conclusion

The year 2008 was a pivotal one for the JDP, marked by political challenges, internal strife, and economic difficulties. While the party remains the most popular, its ability to sustain its dominance is now in question. The future of Turkish politics will depend on the JDP's capacity to adapt to both domestic and international pressures, as well as the emergence of a new national consensus.