2026年中国经济展望_缓慢迈向低通胀_19页_797kb

Economic growth is projected to moderate, with real GDP at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, slightly down from 5.0% in 2025. Nominal GDP growth remains subdued at around 4.1% in 2026, rising to 4.8% in 2027 as deflation eases.

Reflation is expected to be a slow process, with the GDP deflator negative in 2026 (-0.7%) and positive in 2027 (0.2%), pulling CPI into lowflation while PPI improves in the second half of 2027.

Fiscal policy is modestly expansionary, with an augmented fiscal deficit widening to -13.0% of GDP in 2026, supported by public spending on education, healthcare, and social welfare. Monetary policy involves rate cuts and RRR reductions to support economic activity.

Growth imbalances stem from persistent property drag, weak wage gains, and fading one-off effects, with manufacturing and exports showing resilience while consumption and investment moderate.

Risks include external factors like trade tensions or US recession worsening deflationary pressures, and domestic challenges such as slowing rebalancing. Conversely, a favorable external environment could accelerate growth to 5.2% in 2026 under supportive policies.

The 15th Five-Year Plan shifts focus from growth scale to quality and balance, emphasizing technology localization, urban renewal, and consumption through targeted social welfare and fiscal rebalancing.

Overall, China's economy is navigating a slow transition to lowflation, with a gradual rebalancing from supply-driven to demand-oriented growth, underpinned by AI investment and policy adjustments.