2023-11-23-美联储-致力于增长_东德的私有化与企业动态_67页_6mb

Summary of "Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany"

• Introduction: The paper examines a unique policy in post-reunification Germany where privatization required new owners to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. This affected over 18,000 contracts covering ~900,000 workers.

• Model: A dynamic model shows three channels:

  1. Static labor decisions are upwardly distorted
  2. Higher penalties increase productivity growth through investment
  3. Binding targets raise exit rates due to fixed costs

• Empirical Findings:

  • Binding contracts boosted employment (~22% annual growth), productivity (~14% annual growth), but increased exit probability (~3.6% points)
  • IV approach confirmed causality while controlling for selection bias
  • Penalties effectively constrained firms rather than subsidies

• Quantitative Analysis:

  • Calibration shows targets increased employment by ~15% permanently
  • Productivity gains drove long-term convergence
  • Alternative subsidies were less effective politically but more costly

• Policy Implications: The targets policy uniquely shaped firm dynamics by strategically constraining growth, offering practical market governance during transitions. It demonstrates how regulatory interventions can balance efficiency and social welfare in economic transitions.