2026年清洁能源行业展望_57页_1mb

2026 Clean Energy Outlook: Return to Baseload Basics

Key Themes:

• Baseload Power: Focus returns to core power sources (CCGT, turbines, fuel cells, BESS) driven by data centers and US manufacturing onshoring. Valuations shifting from broad "exposure" to fundamentals.
• Utility-Scale Consolidation: Solar projects are growing larger and more complex, creating opportunities for big developers (e.g., Brookfield Renewable, Nextpower) due to policy adaptations like safe harbor rules and FEOC.
• Geopolitical/Risk Headwinds: Potential disruptions include polysilicon tariffs, permitting delays, trade disputes (e.g., AD/CVD), and evolving FEOC policies.

Top Picks (Overweight Ratings):

• Brookfield Renewable (BEP/BEPC): Scale, diversification, and exposure to growth drivers (AI, data centers). Catalysts: GEV partnerships, grid storage demand.
• GE Vernova (GEV): Leading gas turbine supplier with strong near-term order activity and visibility into early-2030s growth.
• Nextpower (NXT): Positioned to gain share in tracker solar markets; innovative technology & financial strength.

Policy & Market Outlook:

• US policy under OBBBA extends tax credits, improving visibility (solar/wind through YE30). Asia-Pacific, especially China, becoming a dominant market for data center demand.
• Mild US retail electricity rate increases support renewable developers.

Major Risks:

• Supply chain disruptions (polysilicon, panels), FEOC stricter guidelines, PPA contract risks, project delays.