20231220-东证期货-美豆_豆粕年度报告_全球建库_价格中枢下移_23页_6mb

报告摘要

Global Inventory Accumulation, Price Center Shift Down

South America: Brazil's yield may decrease slightly in 2023/24 due to drought, but overall production remains high due to increased planting area. Argentina has optimistic yield prospects. Global soybean ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios will reach historical highs.
United States: 2023/24 export competitiveness faces pressure from South American increases. Price support near 1250 cents/lb. 2024/25 planting area may rise under neutral ENSO conditions, with yield possibilities highly dependent on weather.

Supply: Import volumes declined in September/October, but November arrivals improved, easing supply pressure. Low crude soy prices deter long-term forward buying.
Demand: Livestock sectors run at a loss, limiting demand growth. Alternative feedstuffs (rapeseed, sunflower meal) expand, potentially easing demand for soybean meal.

Short term: Weak prices linked to global surplus stock and weak demand.
Medium-to-long term: Focus shifts to U.S. 2024/25 supply-demand balance and Brazil's export flow.
Risk: unreasonable profit levels disrupt the market cycle.