2025-05-19-Jefferies-五月月度调整_17页_4mb

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for April 2025 is estimated at 273.9 billion miles, a year-over-year increase of 0.3%, based on a Bayesian Structural Time Series model with an 88% correlation to reported data. This model outperforms government data availability, which lags by 1-2 months. VMT growth is linked to continued economic improvement, with job creation exceeding expectations in April.

The automotive aftermarket index has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, with a 17.7% trailing twelve-month increase versus 10.6% for the benchmark. Year-to-date performance shows an 11.4% gain for the index, compared to a 5.3% decline in the S&P 500. The industry's average P/E ratio is 24.0x, reflecting strong valuation relative to the S&P's 20.3x and a five-year average of 19.8x.

Weather factors, including a warmer-than-average April with the Southeast region experiencing its second hottest April on record, could boost early demand for cooling and A/C components as summer approaches. Conversely, drier conditions in some areas might modestly increase VMT in nicer weather.

Scrap prices decreased by 4.5% year-over-year, impacting salvage auction operators due to lower commodity pricing. Tire input costs declined by 7.8% year-over-year and further in the first quarter of 2025, potentially affecting manufacturer margins and consumer demand.

Currency fluctuations saw the U.S. dollar weaken against the euro and British pound while strengthening slightly against the Canadian dollar. Economic indicators, such as stable unemployment at 4.2% and higher-than-expected job creation, support a positive outlook for continued VMT and aftermarket growth.

The index has surpassed key valuations, with forward P/E multiples indicating strong market confidence. Analysts highlight risks including potential margin pressure from input costs and external factors like tariffs, but overall sentiment remains bullish. Industry-specific disclosures involve conflicts of interest in investment banking relationships, which may influence research objectivity.