2025-05-28-Jefferies-蒙罗公司（MNRO）_2025年第四季度收益初步观察_7页_99kb

Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Equity Research Summary

Date: May 28, 2025
Key Rating: Hold
Price Target: $22.00 (Up 72% from $12.77)

Flash Note (Q4 2025 Earnings)

• Comparable Sales: +2.8% (adjusted for days) vs. estimate of +1.5% and consensus +0.2%.
• Adjusted EPS: -$0.09 vs. estimate of $0.14 and consensus $0.02.
• Sales: $295M vs. estimate of $309M.
• Market Cap: $399.4M.

Discrepancies

• Gross margin decreased 250 bps to 33.0% (vs. estimate of 34.5%) due to higher material costs for tires and increased promotions.
• Operating margin widened significantly to -8.1%.

Category Performance

• Mix:
  • Front End/Shocks: +27% y/y
  • Batteries: +25% y/y
  • Brakes, Tires, Maintenance: +2%, +2%, +1% y/y respectively
  • Alignments: -1% y/y, the lowest performer.

Management Actions

• Announced a review plan to close 145 underperforming stores during Q1 2026.
• Preliminary Q1 2026 first-quarter total comparable-store sales were +7%.
• Conference call scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.

Valuation Risks

• Ratings Model: Based on forward P/E.
• Risks: Competitive pressures, integration issues, technology risks.

📑 Summary of Other Sections

Analyst Certification

All views in the report are certified by Bret Jordan, Patrick Buckley, and CJ Dipollino, CFA, and they deny compensation ties to the views expressed.

Valuation Methodology

Uses methodologies including DCF, EBITDA, EPS, P/E, EV/EBITDA, and others for price estimations.

Market Position

• Current Price: $12.77 (down 69% from the $22.00 target).
• Stock Volatility: High based on trading activity.

Risk Disclosure

• Principal Risks: Market, competitive, and execution risks.
• Conflicts of Interest: Jefferies has business with the company and may seek compensation for investment banking services.
• Regulatory Compliance: Report structured to comply with U.S. and global securities regulations.

Holding Summary

• Hold Rating: Expected total return of +15% to -10% within 12 months.
• Price Target Justification: Based on the company’s regional strengths, alongside operational challenges.
• Trading vs. Long-term View: May suggest short-term caution and long-term value.

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