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Jefferies US Industrials Team: May Short Cycle Monitor Summary

Event Overview

• Event Name: CALL INVITE - Jefferies US Industrials Team: May Short Cycle Monitor
• Date: Tuesday, May 20, 2025
• Time: 11:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM PT
• Purpose: Review of the monthly data-driven publication "The Short-Cycle Monitor" and analysis of key trends and insights from 1Q earnings across sectors.
• Speakers:
  • Stephen Volkmann – Machinery/Diversified/Distributors
  • Steven DeSanctis – SMID Cap Strategist

Core Content of "The Short-Cycle Monitor"

• Publication History: Launched in 2011, the "SCM" provides insights into sub-sectors of the Industrials sector.
• Focus: Tracks key metrics impacting various end markets and covers over 200 stocks in the Americas and nearly 600 globally.
• Diffusion Index: A monthly tool to assess the health of the Industrial Economy.
• Leading Indicators: Six specific indicators are used to identify inflection trends in the market.
• Investment Themes: The team highlights investment opportunities across sectors based on their analysis.

Investment Ratings and Definitions

• Buy: Expected total return (price appreciation + yield) of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return between -10% and +15% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Expected total return of -10% or less within 12 months.
• NR (Not Rated): Investment rating and price target temporarily suspended.
• CS (Coverage Suspended): Coverage of the company has been suspended.
• NC (Not Covered): Jefferies does not cover the company.
• Restricted: Communications are restricted due to company policy or regulations.
• Monitor: Securities are being monitored, but no financial projections or investment opinions are provided.

Valuation Methodology

• Ratings are based on multiple factors including:
  • Market capitalization
  • Maturity
  • Growth/value
  • Volatility
  • Expected total return over the next 12 months
• Price targets are determined using various methods such as:
  • Discounted cash flow (DCF)
  • EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF)
  • EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF, P/FCF
  • Comparative valuations (premium/discount to average group)
  • Sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns, and ROE

Jefferies Franchise Picks

• Includes only Buy rated stocks from equity analysts.
• Selection is based on fundamental analysis, analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, and favorable risk/reward ratio.
• Picks are not sector-based and may be classified as growth or value.
• Stop-loss thresholds:
  • 15% for stocks with 120-day volatility in the bottom quartile of S&P stocks
  • 20% for the rest

Risks and Limitations

• Market Risk: Price targets may change due to economic, financial, and political factors.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may affect returns for non-US denominated instruments.
• Regulatory Risk: Ratings and reports may be subject to various regulations and may not be updated regularly.
• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have business relationships with companies covered in the report, which could affect objectivity.
• No Investment Advice: The report is not tailored to individual investors and is for general information only.

Distribution of Ratings (1Q 2025)

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies.
• Reports are not investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.
• No securities commission or regulatory authority in Canada or other jurisdictions has reviewed or endorsed the report.
• The report is for professional or institutional investors only in certain regions.
• Jefferies does not guarantee accuracy or completeness of third-party content or ratings.
• Unauthorized copying, re-printing, or distribution is prohibited.

Contact Information

• Jefferies US Industrials Team:
  Email: jefferiesusindustrials@jefferies.com
  Phone: (212) 284-2300

• Individual Analysts:

  • Laurence Alexander: (212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com
  • Sheila Kahyaoglu: +1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.com
  • Christopher LaFemina, CFA: (212) 336-7304 | clafemina@jefferies.com
  • Stephanie Moore: (615) 934-1384 | smoore@jefferies.com
  • Philip Ng, CFA: (212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.com
  • Stephen Volkmann, CFA: (212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.com
  • Steven G. DeSanctis, CFA: (212) 284-2056 | sdesanctis@jefferies.com

Legal and Regulatory Notes

• The report is prepared by Jefferies and its affiliates, including Jefferies LLC, JRS, and others.
• It is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only as one factor in investment decisions.
• No fiduciary duty is assumed by Jefferies in relation to the distribution of these reports.
• Jefferies does not guarantee financial success or accept liability for losses.

Disclaimer

• This report is for informational purposes only.
• No part of the content may be copied, reprinted, sold, or redistributed without prior written consent.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• The report may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Jefferies assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.