联合国贸易发展委员会-贸发会议对海事组织短期温室气体减排措施对各国影响的评估（英）-2021_195页_9mb

UNCTAD Assessment of the Impact of the IMO Short-Term GHG Reduction Measure on States

Core Content

The UNCTAD report evaluates the potential impacts of the IMO Short-Term GHG Reduction Measure on states, focusing on maritime logistics costs, trade, and GDP. The assessment was conducted as part of the IMO's mandated process, with the goal of understanding the implications of the proposed regulatory changes before their implementation. The report highlights the importance of global cooperation and the need for support mechanisms for developing countries, particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), to mitigate the adverse effects of these measures.

Main Findings

• Global Impact: The aggregate global impacts of the IMO measure on maritime logistics costs are relatively small compared to typical market variability in freight rates. The global effect on GDP and trade flows is considered minor relative to other long-term disruptions like pandemics or climate change.
• Country-Specific Impacts: Some countries, especially those most vulnerable to climate change, are likely to experience higher negative impacts in terms of increased transport costs and reduced maritime connectivity. SIDS, in particular, are shown to pay twice the world average for foreign trade transportation due to their remoteness and low connectivity.
• Trade and Economic Output: The report simulates changes in trade volumes and GDP across different regulatory scenarios. The HIGH-GHG reduction scenario leads to a significant decline in trade for certain regions and countries, particularly those with limited maritime infrastructure and connectivity.
• Sectoral Impacts: The measure affects different sectors and ship types differently. For instance, bulk carriers and container ships are more impacted due to their higher energy intensity and the associated cost changes.
• Supply Chain and GVC Participation: The report assesses the impact of the measure on global value chain (GVC) participation, showing that some sectors and regions may see a reduction in their integration into global trade networks due to increased costs and reduced connectivity.
• Support Needs: UNCTAD emphasizes the need for technical and financial support for developing countries to help them manage the increased costs and maintain their trade competitiveness and sustainable development goals.

Key Views

• Collaborative Governance: The report underscores the importance of collaborative governance and partnerships among international organizations, governments, and the shipping industry to ensure effective and equitable implementation of the IMO measure.
• Energy Transition: The IMO measure is seen as a step towards the energy transition in the maritime sector, but it poses challenges for countries reliant on shipping for economic development.
• Climate Justice: UNCTAD calls for high ambition reductions in GHG emissions from shipping and highlights that developing countries may require support to avoid being disproportionately affected by the new regulations.
• Policy Implications: Policymakers should consider the potential negative impacts of the measure on trade and economic growth, especially for countries with limited resources and infrastructure, and should design support mechanisms accordingly.

Key Information

• Scope: The assessment covers the impact of the IMO Short-Term GHG Reduction Measure, including mandatory provisions on the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII).
• Methodology: UNCTAD used a global trade model and combined data from the DNV study with real-time ship tracking and freight rate data to simulate the impacts of the measure on maritime logistics costs, trade, and GDP.
• Limitations: The report acknowledges limitations in the input data and the models used, including the potential for overgeneralization and the exclusion of certain factors that may influence trade and logistics costs.
• Support Mechanisms: UNCTAD recommends measures such as trade facilitation reforms, modernization of ports, and financial assistance to help developing countries manage the increased costs and maintain their trade flows and economic stability.
• Case Studies: The report includes illustrative case studies of countries and sectors such as Brazil's iron ore exports, Egypt's grain imports, and Chile's cherry exports, highlighting the sector-specific and regional impacts of the IMO measure.

Conclusion

The IMO Short-Term GHG Reduction Measure has the potential to contribute to global climate change mitigation, but it also presents challenges for countries with limited maritime infrastructure and economic resources. UNCTAD's assessment provides a comprehensive understanding of these impacts and emphasizes the need for targeted support to ensure that developing countries, especially SIDS and LDCs, can participate effectively in the global maritime economy while contributing to climate goals.