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Summary of the 31st Report on G20 Investment Measures (16 October 2023 – 15 October 2024)

Context and Background

Following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, G20 members pledged not to introduce new barriers to investment and trade, leading to 30 prior reports. The report covers challenges such as global pandemics, conflicts, climate change, and declining Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) investments, which have caused value chain disruptions, weak growth, rising debt, and increased geopolitical tensions. These factors hinder problem-solving and investment.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows

Global FDI flows declined in 2023, continuing a downward trend and remaining below pre-pandemic levels for two consecutive years, with the steepest drop in the fourth quarter. However, in the first quarter of 2024, FDI surged by 78% year-on-year but was comparable to Q1 2023 levels. In G20 economies, FDI plunged in 2023 after pandemic recovery, driven by intra-company loan developments, though Q1 2024 showed increases in Brazil, Germany, and Mexico, mainly due to equity flows and reinvestment of earnings. Overall, FDI flows in Q1 2024 improved slightly from Q4 2023 but remained below peaks from 2021 and 2022. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) rebounded moderately in 2024, but greenfield investments saw an increase in announced capital expenditure (+22%) but fewer projects.

Investment Policy Measures

G20 governments introduced several new policies, with a renewed focus on national security risks associated with foreign investments. This period saw eight members (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, UK, US) adopt such measures, mostly adjustments to existing screening mechanisms. For example:

• Canada enhanced national security reviews for foreign investments in critical sectors like critical minerals.
• France and Germany maintained or expanded screening thresholds for foreign ownership in critical industries, partly in response to COVID-19 and geopolitical issues.
• The US and Russia implemented restrictions on foreign investments targeting national security, such as semiconductor funding controls, land acquisitions, and data protection measures. China also abolished some foreign investment restrictions in 2024, reducing the negative list from 31 to 29 sectors.

No significant changes were reported for investment policies specific to foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flow measures focused on portfolio investments showed mixed results, with emerging markets receiving inflows in 2024 but varying fortunes during the reporting period.

International Investment Agreements

Between October 2023 and October 2024, G20 members concluded five bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and eleven "other IIAs," including agreements on trade, sustainable development, and frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Announcements, withdrawals (e.g., France and Germany from the Energy Charter Treaty), and enforcement timelines were detailed, with total worldwide IIAs rising to 2,834 BITs and 472 "other IIAs" by October 15, 2024.

Overall Policy Implications

The challenging geopolitical and economic environment continues to dampen international investment and FDI, with policies increasingly emphasizing national security risks. This trend widens the investment gap in developing countries, making SDG progress harder to achieve. Policymakers are urged to foster a conducive investment climate to attract higher-quality investment, enhance global value chains, build economic resilience, and promote inclusive growth.

Annex Notes

• Annex 1: Details recent FDI-specific and national security measures by G20 members.
• Annex 2: Covers non-FDI-specific investment measures, such as capital flow regulations, with specific examples from G20 economies.
• Annex 3: Provides updated counts of international investment agreements (IIAs) concluded by G20 members.