2024-09-29-联合国贸易发展委员-联合国贸易发展委员会年贸易优惠展望_高级副本_（英）_100页_12mb

Summary of Trade Preferences Outlook 2024

Background and Purpose

Trade preferences (non-reciprocal trade preferences, or NRTPs) were established in the 1960s to support economic development and export diversification in developing countries. These include schemes like the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), designed to provide duty-free or reduced tariffs for exports from developing nations, particularly least developed countries (LDCs). The goal was to foster industrialization, job creation, and sustainable growth amid global trade liberalization.

Current State and Challenges

Trade preferences remain relevant but face significant erosion due to:

• Declining MFN tariffs and proliferation of FTAs, reducing tariff advantages.
• Rising non-tariff measures (NTMs), which constitute a major trade cost, estimated at 2-4% for developed markets and higher for developing countries.
• Growth of global value chains (GVCs), complicating rules of origin and limiting the effectiveness of tariff-based preferences.
• Low utilization rates in some schemes due to restrictive rules of origin (RoO), administrative burdens, and unmatched product coverage.
• Concentration of benefits among a few countries and products, with limited impact on broader export diversification.

Empirical Findings

• Trade preferences contributed to export growth in specific sectors like apparel and footwear but did not always lead to diversification.
• LDCs benefit from higher preference margins (average 5 percentage points) compared to non-LDCs, but effective margins are often small.
• Asymmetric performance across product groups: creative and high-technology industries show higher diversification potential with preferences, while traditional commodities lag.
• Domestic factors like manufacturing capacity, human capital, and FDI are key drivers of export success under preferences.
• Services trade is growing faster than goods, but services exports from LDCs face barriers and underutilization.

Recommendations for the Future

• Update design and operation: Reform RoO to align with GVCs (e.g., "single transformation" rule), improve utilization through transparency and data availability, and increase product coverage.
• Adapt to 21st-century trade: Use regulatory cooperation to reduce NTM costs, promote regional cumulation, and integrate preferences into new industrial policies (e.g., supporting green technologies).
• Expand beyond tariffs: Explore complementary trade cooperation, such as enhanced FDI promotion, technology transfer mechanisms, and services trade preferences.
• Strengthen process: Encourage domestic and international coordination, including policy forums involving both preference-granting and beneficiary countries, to enhance predictability and stability.

Conclusion

Trade preferences, as currently structured, are losing relevance amid evolving trade dynamics but still offer significant benefits if reformed. Balancing reciprocity, modernization, and inclusivity could better support developing countries' economic diversification and sustainable growth. Further policy coordination and innovation are essential.