20260114-招银国际-华润万象生活-01209.HK-FY25_preview_core_NP_growth_trimmed_to_low_teens_6页_863kb

CR MixC Lifestyle (1209 HK) Summary

Core Content

CR MixC Lifestyle (1209 HK) is a property management company under China Resources, with a diversified business model encompassing residential, commercial, and value-added services (VAS). The report provides a detailed forecast for FY25-27E, along with valuation metrics and investment recommendations.

Main Financial Forecasts

• Revenue:

  • FY25E: RMB 18.2bn (+6.5% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB 19.7bn (+8.5% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB 21.2bn (+7.5% YoY)

• Net Profit:

  • FY25E: RMB 4.0bn (+10.4% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB 4.5bn (+11.8% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB 5.0bn (+10.5% YoY)

• EPS (Reported):

  • FY25E: RMB 1.76
  • FY26E: RMB 1.96
  • FY27E: RMB 2.17

• Core Net Profit:

  • FY25E: RMB 3.9bn (+10.8% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB 4.5bn (+12.2% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB 4.9bn (+10.7% YoY)

• Net Margin:

  • FY25E: 22.1%
  • FY26E: 22.8%
  • FY27E: 23.4%

• Core Net Margin:

  • FY25E: 21.4%
  • FY26E: 22.1%
  • FY27E: 22.8%

• Target Price: HK$53.96 (up 4% from previous HK$51.84)

Key Business Segments

Shopping Mall Business

• Revenue Growth: Expected to increase by 18% YoY in FY25E (vs. 30% in FY24), driven by new consumption formats and stable GP margin.
• GP Contribution: Expected to reach 60% in FY25E, contributing to a commercial segment GP contribution above 70%.
• Performance: 14 luxury malls are expected to grow faster, and the segment is expected to outperform peers in 2026.

Residential Business

• Revenue Growth: Expected to be flat (+1.3% YoY) in FY25E, with basic property management (PM) revenue up 8.7% YoY.
• VAS Revenue: Both non-owner and community VAS revenue declined by 30% YoY due to shrinking new home market and accounting method changes.
• Segment GP Margin: Remained stable.

Payout Ratio and Dividend Yield

• Payout Ratio: Expected to maintain a 100% payout ratio (60% ordinary + 40% special), as there is no clear plan for large-scale capital deployment and to stabilize market sentiment.
• Dividend Yield:
  • FY25E: 4.2%
  • FY26E: 4.8%
  • FY27E: 5.3%

Valuation Metrics

• P/E (2025E): 22.9x
• P/B (2025E): 6.4x
• Forward P/E Band: The company is currently trading at 23.5x (2025E) and is expected to trade at 25x by 2026E.

Comparison with Consensus

• Revenue: CMBIGM forecasts are slightly lower than consensus by -2% in FY25E, -3% in FY26E, and -6% in FY27E.
• Gross Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are slightly lower than consensus by -1% in FY25E, -2% in FY26E, and -4% in FY27E.
• Operating Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are slightly higher than consensus by 4% in FY25E, 2% in FY26E, and 1% in FY27E.
• Net Profit: CMBIGM forecasts are slightly lower than consensus by -1% in FY25E, -3% in FY26E, and -4% in FY27E.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY (Maintain)
• Reasoning: The company is expected to maintain its sector leadership and enhance its scarcity premium. The target P/E multiple is raised to 25x, reflecting the reduced reliance on the residential segment and improved financial performance.

Shareholding and Market Data

• Market Cap: HK$102.5bn
• Free Float: 27.7%
• Share Performance (12-mth):
  • Absolute: 19.1%
  • Relative: 7.1%
• Share Price: Current price is HK$44.90, with a 12-month price performance image provided.

Financial Highlights

• Growth:

  • Revenue: 6.5% YoY in FY25E
  • Gross Profit: 12.6% YoY in FY25E
  • Operating Profit: 10.4% YoY in FY25E
  • Net Profit: 10.4% YoY in FY25E

• Profitability:

  • Gross Margin: 34.8% (FY25E)
  • Operating Margin: 30.5% (FY25E)
  • ROE: 26.0% (FY25E), expected to rise to 30.8% in FY26E and 32.8% in FY27E.

Key Forecasts and Comparisons

• Growth Rate: The company's revenue growth is expected to slow from high base effects, but core NP growth remains strong at 10.8% YoY.
• Valuation Comps:
  • CMBIGM estimates show a lower P/E than the average of the sector, suggesting potential undervaluation.
  • The company's P/E is expected to decrease from 23.5x (2025E) to 19.0x (2027E), indicating a potential upside for investors.

Analyst and Ratings

• Analyst: Miao ZHANG
• CMBIG Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10%
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10%
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Important Disclosures

• The report is prepared by CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM), a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.
• The report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
• The information is subject to change without notice and is not guaranteed.
• The report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with a professional financial advisor.