2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Estimating_the_Effects_of_the_Trans_30页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the IMF Working Paper: Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Core Content

This IMF working paper analyzes the potential economic effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using a multi-sector model with perfect competition developed by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The study estimates the impact of tariff and non-tariff barrier (NTB) reductions on both TPP members and non-members, highlighting the differential effects across countries.

Main Findings

Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit the most from the agreement, due to their strong trade links with other TPP partners.
Negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries are of a different magnitude than the gains of TPP members. The largest real income gain within the TPP is over 50 times larger than the largest negative spillover in LAC.
Some non-TPP LAC countries, such as Colombia and Guatemala, may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP, although full tariff liberalization could have negative impacts on many LAC countries due to current high tariffs.
Non-tariff barriers are a more significant obstacle to trade than tariffs for many countries. Reducing NTBs could lead to substantial gains, particularly for developing countries with strong trade links within the TPP.

Key Points

Tariff reductions among TPP members are estimated to have negligible effects on LAC non-members. The spillovers are minor, and most LAC non-members face only small changes in real income.
Chile is among the LAC countries that benefit the most from the TPP, particularly due to its large exports of food and beverages to TPP partners.
Non-preferential reductions in NTBs may still provide positive spillovers to LAC non-members, especially those integrated into global value chains with TPP partners.
NTB reductions have heterogeneous effects across TPP members. Developing countries with stronger trade links within the TPP are likely to gain more.

Methodology

The study uses input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors.
A multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with perfect competition is applied.
Elasticities of substitution are matched to sectors using data from Caliendo and Parro (2015).
Tariff data are sourced from MAcMap and converted into HS 2007 classification.
NTB reductions are assumed to align with the U.S. levels, unless already lower.

Comparison with Other Studies

The results are consistent with other studies in the literature, although the model does not capture certain trade channels, such as specific policy interactions or long-term structural changes.
The cautionary note is that uncertainty remains regarding the potential effects of the TPP due to the variability in assumptions and data sources.

Conclusion

The TPP is expected to generate small welfare gains for most LAC countries, especially those already in the agreement.
Non-TPP LAC countries may experience mixed effects, with some potentially benefiting from joining the agreement.
The study underscores the importance of trade liberalization and NTB reduction in shaping economic outcomes, but also highlights the need for careful analysis due to the complexity and uncertainty of the trade deal's impact.

Key Tables

Table 1: Elasticities of substitution for different sectors.
Table 3: Welfare/real income effects of tariff liberalization for TPP members.
Table 4: Welfare/real income spillovers in LAC from tariff liberalization.
Table 5: Welfare/real income effects of NTB and tariff reductions for TPP members.