世界银行-哈萨克斯坦经济更新，2023年春季：挑战时期的经济复苏（英）-33页_4mb

报告摘要

Kazakhstan Economic Update Summary (Spring 2023)

Overview: Kazakhstan's economy is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, driven by the hydrocarbons sector, but revised downward due to external shocks and high inflation. Real GDP growth slowed to 3.2% in 2022, with inflation peaking at 20.7% year-on-year amid global energy crises, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions. The economy faces risks from pipeline disruptions, sanctions on Russia, and global financial tightening.
Growth and Inflation: Inflation is projected to fall to 9-11% in 2023 before reducing to 6.3% by 2024, supported by tighter monetary policy (policy rate at 14.75%). High domestic inflation poses challenges for vulnerable households, potentially amplifying social tensions. Investment is sustained by FDIs in mining and government housing programs, but consumer spending is dampened by rising costs and household debt.
External Balance: The current account turned to surplus in 2022, boosted by oil exports and trade surpluses, but risks from Caspian Pipeline Consortium disruptions could affect revenues. Kazakhstan's economy is highly dependent on Russian infrastructure, limiting trade logistics and increasing vulnerability to sanctions. Alternative routes like the Middle Corridor are being explored for resilience.
Fiscal Policy: The government increased spending to 22.5% of GDP in 2022 to support social programs and combat high inflation, turning to a moderate surplus in 2022. Fiscal consolidation is planned for 2023, but efforts to address inequality and human capital deficits are prioritized, including reforms in education and anti-corruption measures.
Economic Outlook: The 2023 outlook faces downward risks from global economic slowdown, supply chain issues, and persistent inflation. Medium-term growth is projected at 3-3.5% average, contingent on oil price stability. Education reform is critical to human capital development, with a focus on reducing learning losses, improving regional equity, and aligning skills with future green and knowledge-based industries.