2023-07-12-世界银行-哈萨克斯坦经济更新_2023年春季_挑战时期的经济复苏（英）_33页_4mb

KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMIC UPDATE SPRING 2023 summarizes recent developments, prospects, and policy issues in Kazakhstan's economy, drawing on data from the Government, National Bank, and World Bank. Authored by Azamat Agaidarov and Sjamsu Rahardja, contributions from various specialists, and guided by Country Directors.

The report highlights a moderate economic recovery with real GDP forecasted at 3.5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, driven by the hydrocarbons sector, but faces pressures from high inflation, supply chain disruptions, and external risks. Inflation is expected to remain above the 4-6% target through 2023 at 9-11%, necessitating continued monetary tightening and fiscal discipline.

Kazakhstan's economy relies heavily on hydrocarbons and mining, absorbing external shocks. High household debt and learning losses from the pandemic exacerbate vulnerabilities. Key risks include potential pipeline disruptions, global financial tightening, and impacts from Russian sanctions, which threaten trade logistics and may require diversification into alternative routes like the Middle Corridor. Fiscal consolidation is planned, but human capital deficiencies, especially in education and skills, hinder long-term growth and equity.

Addressing human capital gaps through education reforms, increased spending, and targeted interventions is central to unlocking Kazakhstán's potential for sustainable, inclusive development in a challenging global environment.