英文_高盛_哈萨克斯坦——较低的趋势增长可能推动中期通货膨胀上升_19页_542kb

Summary

This report analyzes trends in Kazakhstan's economy and their implications for inflation and growth. The assessment reveals a structural slowdown in trend GDP growth since 2009, stabilizing potential output starting in 2014 due to ending commodity super-cycle and oil price drops.

Key factors identified include:

• Supply-side drivers (oil sector) pre-2015 but weakened afterward.
• Increasing domestic demand shocks post-2015, contributing more to inflation through output gaps.
• Recent Tengiz oil field expansion may support growth, but medium-term dynamics remain constrained.
• President Tokayev's 6% growth target exceeds estimated trend rates, potentially leading to higher medium-term inflation (~7%) above the NBK’s 5% target.

The analysis suggests tighter monetary policy might be needed due to currency and demand pressures. The report highlights risks from fiscal policy shifts and lower oil prices for sustained growth.