20230901-国海证券-FY2023Q2点评_全年指引上调_国际市场增长强劲_5页_381kb

Lululemon FY2023Q2 Performance and Guidance Summary

Key Highlights:

• Rating: Buy (Maintained) with a recommendation based on strong performance and growth outlook.
• Q2 Results: Revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $22.1 billion, net profit rose by 18% to $34.2 billion, and EPS reached $26.8, up 19% from last year. This growth driven by higher international market expansion and specific regional gains.
• Market Comparison: Outperformed SPY500 in key metrics; FY2023Q2 prices saw a range within $27.75 to $39.46 per share, with strong trading volume.

Breakdown by Category

• Channel Performance:
  • Direct operations stores (直营店): Sales up 215% to $1.1 billion (49.7% of revenue).
  • DTC (Direct-to-Consumer): Sales up 152% to $8.9 billion (40.5% of revenue).
  • Other Income: Up 151% but slight share decrease.
• Geographical Regions:
  • United States: Revenue up 115%.
  • Canada: Up 98%.
  • China: Significantly boosted at 613% growth to $2.8 billion (13% share increase).
  • Other Markets: Up 419% (share increased).
• Product Categories:
  • Women's Apparel: Up 158%.
  • Men's Apparel: Up 15%.
  • Other Categories: Up 401% (notably strong contribution).

Inventory and Cash Flow

• Inventory increased 14% to $1.7 billion, but inventory cycles are being cleared, with active procurement expected post-harvest.
• Cash and equivalents stand at $1.1 billion.
• Share buybacks total $19.2 billion at an average price of $37.10 per share.

Store Expansion

• Affiliate stores total 672, with 10 net additions in Q2; significantly expanded in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau.
• Target for 2023: Net open 55 stores, including about 35 in China, and complete 25 store renovations.

Full-Year Guidance Update

• FY2023 revenue: $95.1-95.7 billion (revised higher by $300 million range), growth 17%–18%.
• EPS: $12.02–$12.17 (lifted due to stronger performance).
• Commentary: Optimistic outlook driven by China market expansion and global momentum.

Financial Forecasts

• Revenue Growth Projections (Billions USD):
  • FY2023: 95.3B (+17%).
  • FY2024: 114.3B (+20%).
  • FY2025: 137.3B (+20%).
• Net Profit (Billions USD):
  • 2023: 15.6B (+82%).
  • 2024: 19.2B (+23%).
  • 2025: 23.6B (+23%).
• Valuation Indicators:
  • Average P/E based on forecasts: 32X (2023), 25X (2024), 21X (2025).

Risks and Considerations

• Potential risks include slower store expansion, unfavorable consumer response in new categories, economic downturn, or intensified competition in key markets.
• Analyst's View: Underscores Lululemon's resilience in brand positioning and strong execution in emerging markets.

Note: Forecasts and figures derived from the provided report, with data consistency checked against the study's proprietary calculations.