20180719-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_22页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 19 July 2018
Core Content Overview
This document provides a regional market update for China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, focusing on coal prices, bank results, digital transformation trends, and key financial metrics. It includes analyst recommendations, company performance summaries, and market outlooks for the second quarter of 2018.
Main Points by Region
China
- Coal Sector:
- Coal prices are trending downward, with spot prices at QHD5500 falling to Rmb662/tonne from a peak in June.
- Downside risks in the second half of 2018 due to:
- New coal production ramp-up.
- High inventory levels at IPPs.
- Increased hydro power generation due to heavy rains in Southern China.
- Recommendation: Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector and BUY on Shenhua with a revised target price of HK$23.59.
- Valuation: Shenhua is trading at 6.8x 2018F PE and 0.9x 2018F P/B, considered undemanding.
Indonesia
- Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI):
- 2Q18 results: Strong net profit of Rp3.8t, up 18.7% yoy and 3.5% qoq.
- Performance: Net Interest Income (NIM) remained stable at 5.4%; loan growth was 11% yoy.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a revised target price of Rp9,850, reflecting a 1.5x 2019F P/B.
- Asset Quality: Improved NPL ratio to 2.1%, with write-offs mainly from coal and tin sectors.
- Challenges: Possible NIM compression in 2H18 due to increased demand for current and time deposits.
Malaysia
- Digital Transformation:
- Key sectors (gloves, semiconductor, healthcare, ports) are moving towards digital transformation.
- Industry 4.0 is reshaping business models and enhancing competitiveness.
- Challenges: Malaysia needs to address technological and market integration to stay competitive.
- Economic Outlook:
- The country is among the top 25 in readiness for the 4th Industrial Revolution, according to the World Economic Forum 2018 report.
- Strong focus on technology convergence (big data, AI, IoT, cloud computing, etc.) and its impact on various industries.
Singapore
- Overseas-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC):
- 2Q18 results: Expected to be a laggard in NIM expansion.
- Recommendation: BUY with a target price of S$13.52.
- Valuation: Trading at 11.15 S$ as of 18 July 2018.
Key Indices Performance (as of 18 July 2018)
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 25199.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| S&P 500 | 2815.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 5.3 |
| FTSE 100 | 7676.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| AS30 | 6329.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| CSI 300 | 3431.3 | -0.5 | 0.7 | -5.2 | -14.9 |
| FSSTI | 3240.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.8 | -4.8 |
| HSCEI | 10578.5 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -8.0 | -9.7 |
| HSI | 28117.4 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -4.6 | -6.0 |
| JCI | 5890.7 | 0.5 | -0.0 | -1.7 | -7.3 |
| KLCI | 1753.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 2.2 | -2.4 |
| KOSPI | 2290.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -2.1 | -7.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22794.2 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| SET | 1635.9 | 0.6 | -0.0 | -0.2 | -6.7 |
| TWSE | 10842.5 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 1.9 |
| BDI | 1721 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 19.3 | 26.0 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2156 | -0.5 | -3.9 | -7.0 | -9.8 |
| Brent Crude | 73 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -3.2 | 9.0 |
Top Picks and Sell Recommendations
BUY Recommendations:
- Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH): Target Price HK$9.53, Potential Upside 29.1%
- Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): Target Price Rp85,000, Potential Upside 21.4%
- PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Target Price Rp3,700, Potential Upside 69.7%
- Bumi Armada (BAB MK): Target Price HK$1.06, Potential Upside 41.3%
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Target Price S$14.28, Potential Upside 28.1%
- SingTel (ST SP): Target Price HK$4.22, Potential Upside 30.2%
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target Price Bt610, Potential Upside 43.2%
SELL Recommendation:
- Hartalega (HART MK): Target Price HK$4.02, Potential Downside 34.8%
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) 2017 | GDP (yoy) 2018F | GDP (yoy) 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 55.00 | 67.00 | 66.50 |
Company Impact and Risks
- BBNI:
- Earnings: 1H18 net profit was Rp15.5t, up 13.9% yoy.
- Loan Growth: 1H18 loan growth at 11% yoy, slightly below management's target.
- Asset Quality: NPL ratio improved to 2.1%, with write-offs mainly from coal and tin sectors.
- Risks: Potential NIM compression in 2H18, but strong earnings growth expected in 2018-2019.
Strategic Outlook
- Malaysia's Strategy:
- Emphasis on digital transformation across key sectors.
- Industry 4.0 is driving technological convergence and redefining business models.
- The country is ranked among the top 25 for readiness for the 4th Industrial Revolution.
- Challenges: Need to enhance integration and adapt to global trends.
Analysts
- Sandra Huang & Jie Qiong: UOB Kay Hian
- Alexander Margaronis: UOB Kay Hian
Summary of Key Financials and Valuation Metrics
| Metric | 2018F | 2019F | 2020F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Rpb35,126 | Rpb39,322 | Rpb43,975 |
| Non-Interest Income | Rpb20,678 | Rpb23,146 | Rpb25,903 |
| Net Profit | Rpb15,513 | Rpb18,052 | Rpb20,434 |
| EPS (cents) | 136 | 155 | 180 |
| P/B (x) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| ROE (%) | 12.0 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
Conclusion
The report highlights the ongoing downward pressure on coal prices in China due to increased production, high inventory levels, and rising hydro power generation. In Indonesia, BBNI continues to perform well, with a BUY recommendation and a target price of Rp9,850. Malaysia is moving towards digital transformation as part of its Industry 4.0 strategy, while Singapore's OCBC is also a BUY recommendation. The document emphasizes the importance of technology convergence and asset quality improvements in shaping the future of these markets.
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