IMF-安道尔老龄化的财政影响_养老金和医疗保健系统改革（英）-2025_16页_1mb

Overview

Andorra faces significant fiscal challenges due to its rapidly aging population, stemming from high life expectancy and low fertility rates. Without timely reforms, pension and healthcare expenditures are projected to surge, threatening long-term economic stability. The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive pension and healthcare reforms, coupled with proactive migration policies, to address demographic pressures.

Key Findings

• Demographic Trends: Andorra has the highest life expectancy in Europe and one of the lowest fertility rates. By 2050, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 15% to 37%, projected to deplete pension reserves by 2043 and increase healthcare spending by 2.2 percentage points of GDP. Aging will strain public finances, given the country's small size and reliance on high living standards.

• Fiscal Impacts:

  • Pension System: Current pay-as-you-go system risks deficits starting by 2027 if reforms are delayed. Expenditures may reach 11.3% of GDP by 2050, close to the EU average.
  • Healthcare System: Spending could increase from 5.6% to 7.8% of GDP by 2050 due to higher demand from the elderly, especially those over 80, who consume more services.

Policy Recommendations

• Pension Reforms: Adjust contribution rates (e.g., from 12% to 16% of salary), gradually increase retirement age, and develop additional pension pillars to enhance sustainability.
• Healthcare Reforms: Improve cost efficiency through value-based care, digitalization, and preventive measures; increase revenues by expanding services to non-residents and raising contribution rates.
• Migration Strategies: Leverage high net migration rates to offset aging effects, supporting economic diversification and tax revenues.
• Broader Actions: Address aging's full economic impacts, including long-term care and service demand, through a comprehensive approach to maintain macroeconomic stability.

The study concludes that urgent action is essential to mitigate fiscal risks and uphold Andorra's financial health.