20170724-招商证券_香港_-Macro_Report_16页_1mb_1mb

Macro Report Summary

Core Content

The document provides a detailed macroeconomic analysis of the US, Eurozone, and Japan, focusing on GDP growth, key economic indicators, and monetary policy developments for the week of July 24, 2017.

Main Points and Key Information

United States

• GDP Forecast: The US 2Q GDP is expected to show a modest rebound, with a growth rate of 2.0-2.5% (QoQ SAAR), driven by improved consumption and inventory levels.
• Consumption Recovery: Despite weak retail sales and consumer sentiment, the slowdown in CPI suggests real consumption may improve in 2Q. The warm winter effect caused a decline in utilities expenditure in 1Q, which is expected to unwind in 2Q.
• Inventory Impact: Inventory drag on GDP growth is expected to weaken in 2Q, as the drop in 1Q was largely due to a strong base effect. Monthly data indicates continued inventory expansion.
• Industrial Production: Industrial production has improved, aligning with strong PMI data, suggesting a continued moderate GDP growth in 2Q. Global demand recovery and a weaker dollar are expected to support export growth.
• Housing Market: The housing market is expected to be a drag in 2Q due to the soft data from March to May. However, the June housing start data suggests a potential rebound in Q3.
• Monetary Policy: The report expects one more rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the start of balance sheet normalization around the end of the year.

Eurozone

• Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged and continued its QE program at 600 billion euros per month. The ECB's statements were neutral but slightly dovish, leading to a rise in the euro.
• GDP Growth: Eurozone GDP growth is expected to remain stable, with a forecast of 1.7% for 2017.
• Inflation: CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% to 1.2% in 2017, though it remains below the 2% target. The ECB is likely to begin reducing QE in late 2017 if economic recovery continues and inflation remains stable.
• Trade Balance: Eurozone trade balance is expected to remain positive, with export growth at 1.2% and import growth at 1.6% for June 2017.

Japan

• Trade Balance: Japan's trade balance turned from a deficit to a surplus in June, though it was slightly below expectations. Export growth reached 9.7%, and import growth was 15.5%.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its ultra-loose policy, keeping the 10-year bond yield near 0% and the excess reserve rate at -0.1%. The BOJ is expected to continue its QE program.
• Inflation: CPI growth is expected to remain weak, with a forecast of 0.4% for June 2017. Inflation is not expected to reach the 2% target until 2019.
• Economic Outlook: The BOJ raised its GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, but the outlook for inflation remains cautious due to the impact of falling oil prices.

Key Data Publications

Conclusion

The report highlights a modest rebound in US GDP for 2Q, supported by consumption recovery and improved inventory conditions. It also notes the Eurozone's stable growth and the Japan's improving trade balance but weak inflation. The report forecasts one more US rate hike and the start of balance sheet normalization in late 2017, while the ECB may begin QE reduction in late 2017 if economic conditions remain favorable.