2009年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Activity_in_Energy_Down_But_Still_Around_Peak_Levels_13页_891kb

2008 PPI Energy Activity Summary

Core Content

The 2008 Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Project Database report highlights the mixed performance of private activity in the energy sector. Despite a slowdown in the second half of the year due to the financial crisis, private investment in energy projects remained at high levels, reaching the third highest in the 1990–2008 period. The report also includes information on the number of projects, their subsector distribution, regional activity, and the status of potential and distressed projects.

Main Views and Key Information

Overall Investment and Project Activity

• Total investment in energy projects with private participation in 2008 was US$47.5 billion, a 7% decline from 2007.
• 86 projects reached financial or contractual closure in 23 low- and middle-income countries.
• The number of projects declined by 22% compared to 2007.
• New projects were concentrated in the first half of the year, with 47 of the 86 projects closing in the first semester, contributing US$24.3 billion in investment.
• Investment in physical assets increased by 6% to US$38.7 billion in 2008.

Subsector Activity

• Electricity was the most active subsector, accounting for 79 new projects involving US$37 billion in investment.
  • Generation projects were the most numerous, with 73 projects representing 62,200 MW of capacity and US$34.3 billion in investment.
  • Distribution projects had 14 projects involving US$1.3 billion in investment.
  • Transmission projects had 3 projects with US$700 million in investment.
• Natural gas had 7 projects, with US$240 million in investment, including 4 distribution projects and 3 generation projects.

Regional Activity

• India and the Russian Federation were the top two countries in terms of investment and project activity.
  • India accounted for 15 projects involving US$10.8 billion in investment.
  • Russia had 9 electricity generation divestitures involving US$11.4 billion in investment.
• Europe and Central Asia was the most active region, with 26 projects and US$13.4 billion in investment.
• Latin America and the Caribbean had 11 projects, with US$1.1 billion in investment.
• South Asia had 21 projects, involving US$12 billion in investment.
• Sub-Saharan Africa had 7 projects, with US$522 million in investment.
• Middle East and North Africa had only 1 new project in Jordan, involving US$104 million in investment.

Project Closure and Investment Distribution

• Greenfield projects were the most common type, with 65 projects accounting for 59% of new investment.
• Divestitures accounted for 40% of new investment, but saw a 23% decline in 2008 compared to 2007.
• Large projects (US$1 billion or more) were responsible for most of the investment growth in 2007 and 2008.
• Average project size increased from US$120 million in 2004 to US$435 million in 2008, while the median rose from US$34 million to US$152 million.

Project Award Methods

• Direct negotiations accounted for 32 projects.
• Competitive tenders and competitive negotiations accounted for 27 projects.
• Unsolicited proposals accounted for 10 projects.
• For competitive tenders and negotiations, the main criteria were highest price paid to government (60%) and lowest tariff (9%).

Distressed and Canceled Projects

• Three projects were canceled in 2008.
• Two projects reached settlements in international arbitration, including the Electroquil power plant in Ecuador and Energia del Sur in Argentina.
• The total number of canceled or distressed energy projects grew to 95, representing 8% of total investment from 1990–2008.

Concluded Projects

• Two projects concluded in 2008:
  • In Kenya, the Kenya Power and Lighting Company management contract ended.
  • In Russia, RAO EES Rossii was dissolved as part of the power sector restructuring.

Potential New Projects

• At least 66 projects were awarded but had not reached closure by the end of 2008.
• The distribution of potential projects varied by region:
  • East Asia and Pacific: 7 projects
  • Europe and Central Asia: 27 projects
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: 16 projects
  • Middle East and North Africa: 2 projects
  • South Asia: 10 projects
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: 4 projects

Summary of Key Figures

• Total investment in 2008: US$47.5 billion
• New projects: 86
• Projects reaching closure in the first semester: 47
• Projects reaching closure in the second semester: 39
• Investment in physical assets: US$38.7 billion
• Investment in greenfield projects: US$10.4 billion in first semester and US$11.5 billion in second semester
• Investment in divestitures: US$1.4 billion in second semester
• Top countries by investment: India (US$10.8 billion), Russian Federation (US$11.4 billion), Brazil (US$1.1 billion), Turkey (US$1.9 billion)

Conclusion

Despite the financial crisis impacting investment in the second half of 2008, private activity in energy remained robust, with significant investment in electricity generation and infrastructure. The shift in project types and regional activity patterns highlights the evolving dynamics of private participation in energy projects, with large-scale projects driving investment growth and the financial crisis affecting project closure rates.