2009年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Activity_in_Infrastructure_Down_But_Still_Around_Peak_Levels_6页_838kb

PPI Data Update Note 28 Summary

Core Content

The document provides an update on private participation in infrastructure (PPI) in 2008, highlighting the impact of the global financial crisis on investment and project activity across different sectors and regions.

Main Points

Overall Investment Trends

• In 2008, 216 infrastructure projects with private participation reached financial or contractual closure in 48 low- and middle-income countries, involving US$66.5 billion in new investment commitments.
• Total investment in 2008 was US$154.4 billion, a 4% decline from 2007.
• Investment in new projects fell by 12%, while investment in previously implemented projects increased by 3%.
• Large projects (US$1 billion or more) saw a 5% increase in investment, partially offsetting the decline in smaller projects.

Project Closure Trends

• The number of projects reaching closure declined by 32% in 2008 compared to 2007.
• The decline was more pronounced in the second half of the year, but the first half saw similar or higher levels than 2007.
• Telecommunications was the only sector with an increase in project closures (10 projects in 2008).

Regional Analysis

• East Asia and Pacific and Middle East and North Africa saw significant declines in investment, 33% and 50% respectively, due to reduced activity in both new and previously implemented projects.
• Europe and Central Asia experienced a 3% increase in investment, driven by previously implemented projects.
• Latin America and the Caribbean saw a 2% increase in investment, also from previously implemented projects.
• South Asia had a 12% increase in investment, with both new and previously implemented projects contributing.
• Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 10% increase in investment, primarily from previously implemented projects.

Sector Analysis

• Telecommunications was the largest contributor to investment in 2008, accounting for 51% of total investment, though it only grew by 1% compared to 2007.
• Energy investment declined by 7%, and transport by 10%, both due to the financial crisis.
• Water and sewerage investment amounted to US$2.7 billion, which is well below the 1997 peak but within the US$2.6–3.7 billion range of the previous three years.

Private Participation Types

• Concessions saw a 12% increase in investment, driven by strong activity in the first half of the year.
• Greenfield projects increased by 2%, with previously implemented projects contributing to the growth.
• New greenfield projects dropped by 19% compared to 2007, due to the slowdown in the second half.
• Divestitures investment fell by 15%, with declines in both new and previously implemented projects.

Project Cancellations and Distress

• In 2008, 14 projects were canceled or became distressed, bringing the total number for 1990–2008 to 267.
• These projects represented 6.3% of all infrastructure projects and 7.8% of total investment during the period.

Income Group Analysis

• Upper-middle-income countries saw a 3% increase in investment, mainly from previously implemented projects.
• Lower-middle-income and low-income countries experienced declines in investment, with low-income countries seeing a 9% drop.

Project Closure by Income Group

• The number of projects reaching closure in lower-middle-income and low-income countries dropped significantly in 2008.
• Telecommunications had the most decline in project closures in both semesters.

Key Information

• The financial crisis significantly impacted investment in the second half of 2008.
• The first half of 2008 showed strong investment growth, particularly in new projects.
• Large projects played a crucial role in offsetting the decline in smaller projects.
• Previously implemented projects continued to contribute significantly to investment growth.
• Greenfield projects and divestitures were affected more by the crisis.
• The trend of project closures and investment varied significantly across regions and sectors.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Total investment in 2008 was US$154.4 billion, down 4% from 2007.
• Figure 2: Payments to governments (concessions, lease fees, etc.) dropped 42% from 2007 to US$19.1 billion.
• Figure 3: Project closures declined by 32% in 2008 compared to 2007.
• Figure 4: Investment in large projects grew by 5% to US$33.4 billion, while investment in new projects fell by 24% to US$33.1 billion.
• Figure 5: Telecommunications accounted for 51% of total investment in 2008.
• Figure 6: Energy investment fell by 7%, and transport by 10%.
• Figure 7: Investment in upper-middle-income countries grew by 3% to US$78.2 billion, with Brazil as the main contributor.
• Figure 8: Concessions saw a 12% increase in investment, while new greenfield projects dropped by 19%.
• Figure 9: Investment growth was observed in all developing regions except East Asia and Pacific and Middle East and North Africa.
• Figure 10: In East Asia and Pacific, investment in energy and telecommunications accounted for most of the year's investment.

Conclusion

Despite the global financial crisis, private activity in infrastructure remained at peak levels in 2008. The decline in investment was primarily due to the slowdown in the second half of the year, particularly in new projects. However, previously implemented projects and large projects helped to maintain overall investment levels. The document also notes that the first half of 2009 showed signs of a strong recovery in investment, especially in new projects.