2009年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Activity_in_Transport_Down_for_Second_Consecutive_Year_But_Still_Around_Peak_Levels_12页_796kb

Summary of PPI Data Update Note 25 - November 2009

Core Content

This document provides an overview of private participation in infrastructure (PPI) for transport projects in low- and middle-income countries during 2008, highlighting trends, regional activity, and key statistics.

Main Points

• Overall Private Activity in Transport:
  Private activity in transport declined for the second consecutive year in 2008, primarily due to the financial crisis. However, investment commitments remained strong, at the third highest level since 1990–2008, totaling US$26 billion. This is a 10% decrease from 2007.

  • Investment in physical assets increased by 3% from 2007, suggesting a focus on infrastructure development despite financial challenges.

• Project Numbers Declined Sharply:
  The number of projects reached closure in 2008 was 56, a 40% drop from 2007 and a 53% drop from 2006.

  • The decline in project numbers was more pronounced than the decline in investment, indicating a shift toward larger, more complex projects.

• Investment Trends by Semester:

  • First Semester: 38 of the 56 projects reached closure, involving US$17.3 billion in investment, which was 50% higher than the same period in 2007 and the highest for any first semester in the 1990–2008 period.
  • Second Semester: Investment dropped sharply to US$5.8 billion, the lowest level since 2004.

• Concessions and Greenfield Projects:

  • Concessions dominated private transport activity in 2008, accounting for 72% of transport investment in new projects.
  • Greenfield projects (mainly BOT) accounted for 26% of the investment.
  • Concession activity peaked in the first semester, with 26 of 33 concessions reaching closure.
  • Greenfield investment declined in both semesters, and the total for the year was 60% of that in 2007.

• Subsector Activity:

  • Roads: The largest subsector, with 25 projects involving US$16.8 billion in investment.
    • Eight countries implemented road projects, with Brazil, Mexico, and India accounting for 76% of projects and 83% of investment.
    • Most road projects were in the first semester, with 20 projects representing 75% of the year’s road investment.
  • Seaports: 19 projects with US$5.1 billion in investment.
    • The majority of seaport projects were in China, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
  • Airports: Seven new projects with US$2.4 billion in investment.
    • Brazil and Chile were the most active in this subsector.
  • Railways: Five projects with US$1.7 billion in investment, including two greenfield projects and three concessions.

Regional Activity

• Latin America and the Caribbean: The most active region, with 20 projects and US$8.7 billion in investment.

  • Brazil led with 10 projects, including 7 road concessions and 1 railway and 1 seaport.
  • Chile had 4 concessions, and Argentina had 1 project.

• Europe and Central Asia: 9 projects with US$1.3 billion in investment.

  • Turkey led with 2 airport concessions totaling US$1.8 billion.
  • Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Uzbekistan had significant activity in railways and seaports.

• East Asia and Pacific: 8 projects with US$1.1 billion in investment.

  • China had 3 projects, including two BOTs and one partial divestiture.
  • Malaysia and Vietnam were also active in seaport and road projects.

• Middle East and North Africa: 3 projects with US$1.1 billion in investment.

  • Egypt, Morocco, and Yemen implemented seaport projects, including one BOT and two concessions.

• South Asia: 13 projects with US$5.8 billion in investment.

  • India had 11 projects, including 8 road projects and 3 seaport projects.
  • Pakistan had 2 seaport projects.

• Sub-Saharan Africa: 3 projects with US$735 million in investment.

  • Republic of Congo and Nigeria had significant activity, including a Lekki-Epe Toll Road concession.

Potential and Distressed Projects

• Potential Projects: At least 47 projects were awarded but not yet closed by the end of 2008.

  • Latin America and the Caribbean had the most potential projects (18), followed by Europe and Central Asia (11), and East Asia (7).

• Distressed Projects:

  • 67 projects were canceled or distressed, representing 6% of all transport projects and 8% of total investment from 1990–2008.
  • The Kulim-Butterworth Highway in Malaysia was canceled in March 2008 after being acquired by a state-owned enterprise.

Concluded Projects

• Five projects concluded in 2008, including:
  • Chittagong container terminal in Bangladesh (2-year management contract).
  • Three projects in Chile: two airport concessions and one road concession.
  • One project in Colombia: the Los Patios-Guasca-El Salitre-Briceno Toll Road concession.

Key Statistics

• Total investment in transport projects in 2008: US$26 billion.
• Total investment in physical assets: US$22.6 billion.
• Average project size increased from US$150 million in 2004 to US$410 million in 2008.
• Median project size increased from US$57 million to US$230 million.
• 33 concessions were implemented in 2008, representing 72% of transport investment in new projects.
• 17 greenfield projects (mostly BOTs) accounted for 26% of investment.
• Investment in the first semester of 2008 was 50% higher than in 2007 and the highest in the 1990–2008 period.
• Investment in the second semester of 2008 was the lowest since 2004.

Conclusion

Despite a decline in the number of projects, private investment in transport remained robust in 2008, driven by large-scale projects and a shift toward more financially viable models. The financial crisis impacted the pace of project closures, especially in the second semester, but early signs of recovery were noted in the first semester of 2009. Activity was highly concentrated in a few countries and subsectors, particularly in Brazil, India, and China, and in roads and seaports.