2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Request_for_a_Stand_93页_1mb

Summary of Jordan's Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (July 2012)

Core Content

Jordan requested a 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2012 to address significant external and fiscal vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities were primarily driven by energy sector issues, including the disruption of natural gas supplies from Egypt and high oil prices, which led to increased fuel costs and a surge in public debt. The program aims to correct fiscal and external imbalances while maintaining the exchange rate peg and supporting sustainable and inclusive growth.

Key Objectives of the Program

• Fiscal Sustainability: Reduce public sector financing needs, lower public debt, and ease pressure on reserves.
• External Adjustment: Address the current account deficit and reduce reliance on external grants.
• Energy Sector Reform: Implement cost recovery in the electricity sector and diversify energy sources.
• Social Stability: Ensure that fiscal adjustments are socially acceptable and do not trigger unrest.
• Growth and Employment: Implement policies that foster growth and employment, especially in the context of economic shocks and regional instability.

Main Policy Measures

Fiscal Policy

• Tax Reforms: Improve tax administration and increase tax revenue through better compliance, especially on property and consumption taxes.
• Expenditure Restructuring: Reduce current spending, particularly subsidies and transfers, and rationalize public spending.
• Social Safety Nets: Strengthen support for the poor through targeted assistance rather than broad subsidies.
• Revenue Measures: Focus on luxury goods (airline tickets, alcohol, tobacco) and consider tax amnesties, though the latter may have long-term negative impacts.

Energy Policy

• Tariff Reforms: Increase electricity and fuel tariffs to reduce the burden on the National Electric Power Company (NEPCO).
• Diversification of Energy Sources: Seek alternative energy sources, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, to reduce dependency on Egypt.
• Cost Recovery: Implement comprehensive reforms to ensure NEPCO operates at cost-recovery levels.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Maintain the Peg: Continue to anchor inflation expectations and provide macroeconomic stability by maintaining the Jordanian dinar (JD) peg to the U.S. dollar (USD).
• Interest Rates: Raise overnight interest rates to attract JD-denominated assets and reduce dollarization.

Structural Reforms

• Business Environment: Improve transparency, accountability, and reduce the cost of doing business.
• Private Sector Development: Enhance competitiveness and promote private sector-led innovation.
• Public Financial Management: Strengthen fiscal discipline and improve the efficiency of public spending.

Stand-By Arrangement Details

• Amount Requested: SDR 1,364 million (about $2 billion, 800 percent of quota).
• Access and Phasing:
  • SDR 255.75 million upon Board approval and the first review.
  • SDR 85.25 million upon the second review.
  • Remaining SDR 1,023.75 million in ten equal installments of SDR 76.725 million, subject to quarterly reviews.
• Program Duration: 36 months.
• Purpose: Provide liquidity to maintain reserves at a safe level until alternative energy sources are established and to support fiscal consolidation.

Risks and Challenges

• Fiscal Vulnerabilities: High dependence on grants and energy prices, leading to large macroeconomic imbalances.
• Reserve Depletion: CBJ reserves fell to $6.5 billion by mid-2012, a 40 percent decline since end-2011.
• Social Tensions: Increased fuel and electricity prices led to public backlash, requiring careful balance between fiscal adjustment and social stability.
• External Pressures: Regional tensions and global downturn affected tourism, remittances, and FDI, worsening the current account deficit.

Program Monitoring and Conditionality

• The program includes quarterly reviews and conditionality measures to ensure fiscal and external adjustments are on track.
• The IMF staff emphasized the need for more ambitious fiscal adjustments, but the authorities opted for a cautious approach due to political constraints.
• Structural reforms and improved tax administration are critical to achieving long-term fiscal sustainability and growth.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department, outlining the economic situation and program design.
• Staff Supplement: Assesses risks to the IMF and its liquidity position.
• Request for Modification of Performance Criteria: Adjustments to the program's conditions.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's discussion and approval.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides the Jordanian government's perspective on the program.

Economic Outlook and Scenarios

Conclusion

The Jordanian authorities sought IMF support to address significant external and fiscal vulnerabilities. The program includes a mix of fiscal consolidation, energy sector reforms, and structural improvements to ensure sustainable growth and macroeconomic stability. The SBA provides the necessary liquidity to stabilize the economy, with a focus on maintaining the exchange rate peg and reducing reliance on external grants. The program's success depends on the implementation of reforms in tax administration, energy pricing, and public financial management.