2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Seventh_and_Final_Review_Under_the_Stand_57页_1mb

Jordan: IMF Seventh and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The IMF completed the seventh and final review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Jordan on July 31, 2015, enabling the disbursement of SDR 284.167 million (about US$396.3 million). This SBA, approved in 2012, was a three-year program aimed at stabilizing Jordan's economy amidst severe regional shocks, including the refugee crisis from Syria and Iraq, and the disruption of energy imports from Egypt.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Program Achievements

• Jordan has successfully navigated a challenging regional environment, with economic performance showing resilience.
• Growth slowed in the first quarter of 2015 due to regional tensions, particularly related to ISIS, which impacted exports and tourism.
• The current account deficit is narrowing, driven by lower oil prices and increased remittance inflows.
• Inflation remains low, with headline CPI inflation rebounding to 0.3 percent y-o-y in June, while core inflation continues its gradual decline.
• Financial markets are robust, with banks remaining profitable and having strong liquidity and capital buffers.
• The central government and public utilities have made progress in fiscal consolidation, particularly through fuel subsidy reform and energy and water sector reforms.

2. Policy Implementation

• The 2015 budget over-performed, with revenue exceeding projections by 0.3 percent of GDP due to tax amnesty.
• NEPCO’s losses were in line with expectations, and all arrears were cleared by early April 2015.
• The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in early July to support economic activity and close the negative output gap.
• Fiscal structural reforms are moving forward, including the adoption of a draft law to route all government agency revenue through the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and the preparation of an action plan for energy sector arrears resolution.

3. Outlook and Risks

• Growth is projected to be more gradual, with a revised 2015 growth forecast at about 3 percent, down from 3.8 percent.
• The recovery is expected to be driven by public and private investment, as well as a rebound in exports and tourism, starting in 2017.
• Risks include prolonged regional conflicts, donor fatigue, a further U.S. dollar appreciation, and a sharp rebound in oil prices.
• A loss of momentum in reforms could also pose a threat to economic stability.

4. Structural Reforms and Vision 2025

• Structural reforms are crucial to enhancing Jordan's competitiveness and creating jobs.
• These reforms focus on labor market reform, improving the business climate, and enhancing the quality of public institutions.
• Vision 2025, a 10-year economic and social policy framework, is an opportunity to address these challenges and should be anchored in a medium-term macro-fiscal framework.

Key Policies and Reforms

A. Public Sector Policies

• Jordan aims to reduce public debt to about 70 percent of GDP by 2020.
• The combined public deficit is expected to decline from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 0.5 percent in 2019.
• The energy strategy includes planned tariff increases, with the possibility of reversing them if oil prices rise.
• The water sector is expected to achieve operational cost recovery by 2016 through fee increases and planned investments.

B. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The CBJ maintains an appropriate monetary stance and is committed to preserving macroeconomic stability.
• It monitors the risk premium, dollarization, and core inflation closely.
• The monetary transmission mechanism has shown some normalization in credit growth, though regional uncertainty has weakened it since 2012.
• A tighter monetary stance could help strengthen external price competitiveness, supporting the economy in closing the output gap.

C. Structural Reforms

• The Fund encourages continued structural reforms to address low employment and high public debt.
• These reforms include labor market reform, business climate improvements, and institutional strengthening.
• A medium-term fiscal framework is essential to guide future policy decisions and ensure the sustainability of reforms.

Program Issues and Staff Appraisal

• The program has helped Jordan maintain macroeconomic stability and build confidence despite external shocks.
• The Fund is prepared to continue its engagement through Post-Program Monitoring.
• The completion of the seventh review marks the end of the SBA, but the country remains on a path toward sustainable economic recovery.

Conclusion

Jordan's economic program under the SBA has enabled the country to manage significant external shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability. While progress has been made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, challenges remain, particularly in reducing public debt and boosting employment. The Fund encourages continued reform efforts and close engagement to ensure long-term economic resilience and growth.