2017年全球汽车行业高管调查（英文版）_54页_8mb

Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 Summary

Core Content

The Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 is KPMG International's 18th annual assessment of the automotive industry, providing insights into the current state and future prospects of the sector. The survey includes responses from nearly 1,000 senior executives across 42 countries, representing a diverse range of stakeholders such as automakers, suppliers, dealers, financial services providers, and companies from the ICT sector. Additionally, over 2,400 consumers were surveyed to compare their perspectives with those of industry leaders.

The survey highlights the complexity and uncertainty faced by the automotive industry as it navigates the transition from traditional combustion engine (ICE) technologies to new, digital, and electric mobility solutions. A key theme is the "lost in translation" dilemma, where the automotive and digital worlds are converging but remain fundamentally different in culture and approach.

Main Points and Key Trends

1. Key Trends Identified

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): Ranked as the #1 key trend in 2017, surpassing connectivity and digitalization.
• Connectivity and Digitalization: Still a major focus, especially for downstream players, but faces skepticism due to the need for new competencies.
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs): Seen as a potential breakthrough for electric mobility, though not yet mature.
• Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs): Remain a popular choice for consumers, especially in China.
• Autonomous Driving: Expected to redefine vehicle utility and enable service- and data-driven models.
• Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)/Car Sharing: Gaining traction as part of the broader shift toward shared mobility.
• Platform Strategies: Increasingly important for cost efficiency and scalability.
• Big Data Utilization: Becoming essential for creating value and personalizing services.

2. Executive Perspectives on Powertrain Technologies

• Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs): Still seen as vital for the foreseeable future, with 76% of executives believing they will remain more important than electric drivetrains for a long time.
• Diesel Technology: Faces significant social and regulatory challenges, with more than half of executives expecting it to be phased out by 2023.
• BEVs: Face skepticism due to infrastructure limitations and long recharging times.
• FCEVs: Considered the real breakthrough for electric mobility, though not yet ready for mass adoption.

3. Consumer vs. Executive Views

• Consumers show a clearer preference for traditional powertrain technologies (e.g., ICEs and hybrids), especially in regions like North America and China.
• Executives are more diverse in their views, with a strong focus on evolutionary and revolutionary technologies simultaneously.
• There is a disconnect between consumer expectations and executive strategies, especially in terms of the acceptance of BEVs and the readiness of the market for digital integration.

4. Regional Insights

• Western Europe: Strong emphasis on ICEs and diesel, with 70% of executives believing BEVs are unlikely to succeed due to infrastructure.
• China: Strong support for BEVs, with 72% of Chinese OEMs investing heavily in this technology.
• India & ASEAN: Remain focused on diesel and ICEs, with diesel expected to maintain a significant share due to its application in long-distance and rural transport.
• North America: Consumers still prefer ICEs, with 37% planning to buy a full hybrid or ICE as their next vehicle.

Key Challenges

• Geopolitical Turmoil: Could disrupt the global automotive landscape and shift production and market dynamics.
• Infrastructure Gaps: A major obstacle for BEVs, as the lack of a widespread and user-friendly charging network hinders adoption.
• Technological Uncertainty: Executives are hesitant to commit fully to any one technology, balancing investment in both traditional and new solutions.
• Cooperation and Standardization: Needed for the success of electric and autonomous technologies, especially in infrastructure and data sharing.

Key Insights from Executives

• Co-integration: A new dimension where both the automotive and digital worlds coexist and influence each other, rather than fully merging.
• Role Redefinition: Traditional auto companies must redefine their roles in a digital ecosystem, focusing on service- and data-driven models.
• Regulatory Influence: Regulations are a strong driver of change, especially in pushing for electrification and reducing emissions.
• Autonomous Driving: Seen as a transformative force that could change how vehicles are used and valued, but faces challenges in zero-error capability and public acceptance.

Future Outlook

• Technology and Mind-Shift Dilemma: Successful innovation requires not only technological advancement but also a shift in consumer mindset.
• Infrastructure Development: Critical for the success of BEVs and other electric vehicles, with Tesla leading in this area through its supercharger network.
• Regional Shifts: The automotive industry is expected to see a global shift in powertrain technologies and market strategies due to changing regulations and consumer preferences.
• Need for Flexibility: Executives must remain open to evolutionary, revolutionary, and disruptive paths, ensuring they are not left behind in the transition to the next dimension of the industry.

Conclusion

The Global Automotive Executive Survey 2017 underscores the complex and uncertain future of the automotive industry. While BEVs are currently the top trend, they face significant infrastructure and acceptance challenges. FCEVs are seen as a promising alternative, and autonomous driving is poised to redefine the industry. The survey highlights the need for cooperation, standardization, and flexible strategies to navigate the transition from traditional to next-gen technologies.