2021年全球汽车行业高管调查（英）-28页_2mb

Industry Leaders Foresee Dramatic Changes in the Automotive Sector

Core Content

The KPMG 2021 Global Automotive Executive Survey highlights the transformative changes expected in the automotive industry over the next 5 to 10 years. More than 1,100 executives across 31 countries have shared insights on the major forces shaping the sector, including technological advancements, evolving consumer behavior, and the rise of new entrants.

Main Findings

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):
  EV adoption is expected to grow significantly by 2030, with many executives predicting that EVs will reach cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. While there is no consensus on market share, the majority believe EVs can be widely adopted without government subsidies, yet still support such programs.

  • On average, EVs are expected to capture 50% of the market in Japan, China, the U.S., and Western Europe, and 40% in Brazil and India.
  • 77% of executives expect consumers to require charge times under 30 minutes, highlighting the need for DC fast-charging infrastructure.
  • 43% of executives expect automakers to sell data to insurance companies, emphasizing the potential for monetizing vehicle data.

• Digital Consumers:

  • 78% of executives believe most new vehicles will be purchased online by 2030.
  • 47% think at least 60% of new cars will be sold directly by automakers to consumers.
  • A seamless and hassle-free experience is expected to become more important than vehicle performance in consumer purchasing decisions.

• New Business Models:

  • 84% of executives think car subscriptions will compete with traditional sales and leases by 2030.
  • 45% of executives believe automakers, rather than dealers or other players, will be best positioned to succeed in offering subscriptions.
  • 61% of respondents think start-ups will have a moderate impact on the industry in the next decade, while 31% predict a major impact.

• New Technologies and Entrants:

  • The automotive and technology sectors are converging, with Google, Apple, Amazon, and Huawei seen as potential new entrants.
  • 85% of respondents are considering investments, acquisitions, or partnerships in new technology companies.
  • 75% of respondents are at least moderately likely to divest nonstrategic parts of their businesses.

• Supply Chain Challenges:

  • 53% of executives are confident in the industry’s ability to achieve more profitable growth over the next five years, while 38% are concerned.
  • 55% are very or extremely concerned about labor shortages, especially in the U.S.
  • 46% are worried about the impact of commodity price volatility on their business in the next year.
  • 57% expect the cost and complexity of trade rules and tariffs to increase in the next five years.

Future of Powertrains

• EVs are expected to dominate the market, but no consensus exists on the exact market share.
• 73% of respondents believe EVs will reach cost parity with ICE vehicles by 2030.
• 77% think EVs will achieve widespread adoption without subsidies, yet 91% support government assistance.

Digital Transformation and Data Monetization

• Automakers are shifting toward digital sales and marketing, requiring new capabilities in transaction processing and customer engagement.
• Vehicle data is expected to be a key asset, with 43% of executives predicting data sales to insurance companies.
• 81% of respondents are confident that automakers have adequate cybersecurity and data privacy protections.

Regional Outlook

• U.S. executives are the most optimistic, with 66% confident about growth prospects, while Germany has 49% and China has 55%.
• France shows the highest concern, with 70% of executives worried about growth.
• Europe is seen as a laboratory for new mobility, driven by ESG and low-carbon goals, but also facing challenges due to regulatory pressures and technological shifts.

Autonomous Vehicles

• Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to enter the market, primarily in the form of ride-hailing and delivery services, by 2030.
• Tesla is seen as the leader in AV solutions globally, followed by Huawei and Waymo (Google).
• 61% of executives believe start-ups will have a moderate impact on the industry, with some predicting a major impact.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is on the brink of a fundamental transformation, driven by EV adoption, digital consumer behavior, new entrants, and technological convergence. While optimism about growth is widespread, supply chain vulnerabilities and regulatory challenges remain significant concerns. The shift toward direct sales, data monetization, and autonomous mobility is expected to reshape the industry landscape over the next decade.