毕马威：第22次_全球汽车行业高管调查（2021）_28页_2mb

Industry Leaders Foresee Dramatic Changes in the Automotive Sector

Core Content

The KPMG 2021 Global Automotive Executive Survey highlights the transformative changes expected in the automotive industry over the next 5 to 10 years. Over 1,100 executives from 31 countries participated, offering insights into the future of the sector. The survey reveals a mix of optimism and concern, with significant variations in perspectives across regions and company types.

Main Trends and Findings

1. Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• EV Market Growth: Executives expect a dramatic increase in EV market share by 2030, though there is no consensus on the exact percentage.
• Cost Parity: Most executives believe EVs will reach cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030.
• Subsidy Support: Despite the belief that EVs can be adopted without subsidies, 91% of respondents support government assistance.
• Charging Infrastructure: 77% of executives expect consumers to require charge times under 30 minutes, but current public charging stations are too slow. This highlights the need for DC fast-charging infrastructure.
• Home Charging: Only slightly more than half of respondents expect home charging to be the primary source for EVs, indicating a significant need for alternative charging solutions.

2. Digital Transformation and Consumer Behavior

• Online Sales: 78% of executives believe most new cars will be purchased online by 2030, with 47% expecting over 60% of sales to be direct from automakers.
• Seamless Experience: A seamless and hassle-free experience is expected to be more important than vehicle performance in consumer decisions.
• Data Monetization: Automakers may monetize data from vehicles, especially related to insurance. 43% of executives believe data will be sold to insurance companies.
• Cybersecurity: 81% of respondents are confident automakers have adequate cybersecurity and data privacy protections.

3. New Business Models and Ownership

• Subscription Models: 84% of executives expect car subscriptions to be a competitive offering by 2030.
• Automaker Leadership: 45% of respondents believe automakers, not dealers, will be best positioned to succeed in subscriptions.
• Ownership Shift: The shift from traditional ownership to new models like subscriptions is expected to reshape the industry.

4. New Entrants and Technology Convergence

• Tech Giants: Executives expect Google, Apple, Amazon, and Huawei to enter the car market.
• Startups: 61% of respondents believe startups will have a moderate impact, while 31% think they will have a major impact.
• Contract Manufacturing: 82% of executives believe new entrants can succeed using contract manufacturing.

5. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

• Commodities and Labor: 53% of executives are confident about profitable growth over the next five years, but 55% are very or extremely concerned about labor shortages.
• Commodity Price Volatility: 46% of respondents are very or extremely concerned about the impact of commodity price volatility on their business in the next year.
• Supply Chain Risks: Executives are worried about the availability and price of key components like semiconductors, steel, and rare earth elements.

Regional Variations

• Confidence in Growth: The U.S. is the most confident region (66%), followed by China (55%), and Germany (49%). France shows the highest concern (70%).
• Supply Chain Concerns: The U.S. is particularly worried about labor shortages, with over 70% of executives concerned.
• Industry 4.0 Preparedness: 60% of executives say they are very or extremely well prepared for Industry 4.0 technologies like AI.

Key Players and Future Outlook

• Leaders in Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla is the most cited leader globally, followed by Huawei and Waymo (Google).
• M&A Activity: The survey predicts unprecedented M&A activity in the next three years due to the convergence of technology and the automotive sector.
• Long-Term Outlook: Executives are optimistic about the industry's future, but they are aware of the risks and challenges that will shape the next decade.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is on the brink of a major transformation, driven by technological advancements, shifting consumer behavior, and the rise of new entrants. While there is optimism about future growth and innovation, executives are also aware of the significant challenges, particularly in supply chain resilience and the need for new capabilities in digital sales and cybersecurity. The industry's ability to adapt and innovate will determine its success in the coming years.