思略特+2023年可持续航空燃料研究-37页_3mb

SAF Market Analysis Summary

Executive Summary

• Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are critical for decarbonizing aviation, but current supply is insufficient.
• Investment Requirements: €1,000 billion in capital expenditure is needed by 2050 to establish SAF refineries.
• Future Demand: Up to 325 million tons of SAF by 2050 to achieve net-zero aviation emissions.
• Key roadblocks require coordinated efforts from stakeholders, including government, industry, and investors.

Market Dynamics

• Current SAF supply meets only ~0.1% of aviation fuel demand.
• Regulatory Mandates: EU, UK, India, and Japan have SAF blending targets (e.g., EU: 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030).
• Growth Projections: Global demand under IEA Net Zero Scenario requires significant capacity expansion by 2050.
• Feedstock Split: Combination of bio-based (HEFA) and PtL SAF, with PtL growing after ~2040 due to cost competitiveness.

SAF Production Challenges

Bio-based SAF (HEFA)

• Mature technology with up to 84% emission reduction.
• High feedstock costs due to limited availability of waste/residues.
• Requires expansion of sustainable feedstock sources (~40 million tons by 2030).

PtL SAF

• Emerging technology with up to 94% emission reduction.
• High costs driven by electricity, hydrogen, and CO2 availability.
• Competitiveness depends on renewable energy prices and infrastructure.

Key Roadblocks

1. Regulatory Uncertainty: Lack of harmonized global standards.
2. Accounting Complexity: Ambiguity in crediting SAF for emissions reduction.
3. High Investment Risk: Large upfront costs for production facilities.
4. Feedstock Constraints: Limited availability of sustainable resources.
5. Technological Scaling: Need for demonstration facilities and greater investment in R&D.
6. Public Awareness: Low consumer and corporate understanding of SAF.

Proposed Solutions

• Clarify regulations with international standards and SAF certification schemes.
• Diversify feedstock sources (e.g., using waste, renewable hydrogen, CO2).
• Hedge financial risk through long-term contracts and state subsidies.
• Upskill corporate customers to increase SAF awareness and drive demand.
• Invest in demonstration facilities to prove mass-scale production viability.

SAF Business Archetypes

1. Feedstock Provider: Securing sustainable sources.
2. Technology Provider: Developing efficient and scalable production processes.
3. SAF Producer: Investing in production facilities.
4. Fuel-Mix Provider: Managing blending and distribution.
5. SAF Investor: Financing SAF production.
6. SAF Trader: Facilitating market liquidity and risk management.
7. SAF Certifier: Ensuring transparency in SAF sustainability claims.

Conclusion

Achieving SAF scalability requires concerted effort across all stakeholders. Addressing the identified roadblocks and leveraging the outlined business archetypes can unlock SAF’s potential as a critical solution for aviation decarbonization.