20240117-招银国际-吉利汽车-00175.HK-Expect_2H23E_net_profit_to_double_HoH_5页_879kb

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (175 HK) - Equity Research Update Summary

Key Highlights:

• Geely is expected to achieve a BUY rating with a target price of HK$14.00, representing a 75.2% upside from the current price.
• The company's 2023 second-half net profit is projected to double year-on-year to RMB 3.2 billion, driven by all-time-high sales volume and declining raw-material prices.
• For fiscal year 2024, net profit is forecast to rise 32% year-on-year to RMB 6.2 billion, with sales volume expected to increase 7% to 1.8 million units.
• Uplifting catalysts include new models like the Zeekr 007 and Lynk & Co 08, which, alongside improved gross margins (projected at 13.9% for the Geely brand in 2H23E and 14% in FY24E), could boost the share price.
• Risks include lower sales volume (particularly for new energy vehicles) than expected and potential sector de-rating.
• The analysis revises up key financial metrics, such as net profit for FY23E and FY24E, and values the company including Zeekr at a subsidiary market cap target of HK$70 billion.