IEF-2025年三月度石油和天然气数据审查（英）-2025.3_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Monthly Oil & Gas Data Review Summary - March 2025

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the latest updates to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) oil and gas databases as of January 2025. The data reflects both month-on-month (m/m) and year-on-year (y/y) trends in oil and gas demand, production, and inventories across reporting countries.

Oil Highlights

Month-on-Month (m/m) Trends (January 2025 vs. December 2024)

Oil demand fell by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d).
Crude production decreased by 276 thousand barrels per day (kb/d).
NGL production dropped by 512 kb/d.
Refinery intake declined by 1.4 mb/d.
Crude inventories increased by 18.4 mb.
Product inventories rose by 20.9 mb.

Year-on-Year (y/y) Trends (January 2025 vs. January 2024)

Oil demand increased by 270 kb/d.
Refinery intake rose by 449 kb/d.
Crude production increased by 1.06 mb/d.
NGL production increased by 622 kb/d.
Crude inventories were 176.4 mb below the 5-year average.
Product inventories were 10.6 mb above the 5-year average.

Key Drivers

M/m decline in oil demand: Mainly due to reduced demand in Indonesia (-676 kb/d), Japan (-145 kb/d), and South Korea (-143 kb/d).
Y/y increase in oil demand: Driven by higher crude oil demand in the US.
M/m decline in crude production: Notable drops from Canada (-97 kb/d), UK (-70 kb/d), US (-60 kb/d), and Norway (-56 kb/d).
Y/y growth in crude production: Led by US (+877 kb/d), Canada (+221 kb/d), and Venezuela (+190 kb/d).

Gas Highlights

Month-on-Month (m/m) Trends (January 2025 vs. December 2024)

Gas demand increased by 20.7 billion cubic metres (bcm).
Gas production decreased by 0.4 bcm.
Gas inventories declined by 50.6 bcm.

Year-on-Year (y/y) Trends (January 2025 vs. January 2024)

Gas demand rose by 4.1 bcm.
Gas production fell by 2.9 bcm.
Gas inventories decreased by 19.8 bcm.

Key Drivers

M/m decline in gas production: Mainly due to Norway (-0.75 bcm), Australia (-0.53 bcm), and Azerbaijan (-0.44 bcm).
M/m increase in gas demand: Driven by EU+UK (+5.9 bcm), with total gas demand reaching 231 bcm.
Y/y decline in gas production: Led by Russia (-2.6 bcm), Norway (-1.3 bcm), Egypt (-0.96 bcm), and Australia (-0.56 bcm).
Y/y growth in gas production: Supported by US (+1.6 bcm), Canada (+1 bcm), Algeria (+0.54 bcm), and Indonesia (+0.35 bcm).

Product Demand Trends

Gasoline demand declined by 914 kb/d m/m.
Jet Fuel demand dropped by 154 kb/d m/m.
Diesel demand fell by 68 kb/d m/m.
Naphtha demand increased by 192 kb/d m/m.
LPG demand rose by 122 kb/d m/m.

Inventory Trends

Crude oil inventories increased by 18.4 mb m/m, but were 176.4 mb below the 5-year average.
Product inventories rose by 20.9 mb m/m, and were 10.6 mb above the 5-year average.
EU+UK gas inventories declined by 19.5 bcm m/m, settling at 8.6 bcm below the 5-year average.

Summary of Key Figures

Category	Month-on-Month (m/m)	Year-on-Year (y/y)
Oil Demand	-1.4 mb/d	+270 kb/d
Crude Production	-276 kb/d	+1.06 mb/d
NGL Production	-512 kb/d	+622 kb/d
Refinery Intake	-1.4 mb/d	+449 kb/d
Crude Inventories	+18.4 mb	-176.4 mb (vs. 5-year avg)
Product Inventories	+20.9 mb	+10.6 mb (vs. 5-year avg)
Gas Demand	+20.7 bcm	+4.1 bcm
Gas Production	-0.4 bcm	-2.9 bcm
Gas Inventories	-50.6 bcm	-19.8 bcm (vs. 5-year avg)
EU+UK Gas Demand	+5.9 bcm	- (not specified)
EU+UK Gas Inventories	-19.5 bcm	-8.6 bcm (vs. 5-year avg)

Conclusion

The JODI data for January 2025 shows a mixed trend in oil and gas markets. While oil demand declined on a monthly basis, it increased year-on-year, mainly due to higher demand in the US. Crude production fell m/m but rose y/y, with US, Canada, and Venezuela leading the growth. Gas demand surged m/m, especially in EU+UK, but gas production dropped both m/m and y/y, with declines observed in Russia, Norway, Egypt, and Australia. Inventories for both crude and product oils increased m/m, while gas inventories fell significantly. These trends reflect ongoing shifts in global energy markets and demand patterns.