深度报告-20250205-中邮证券-食品饮料深度报告_2025年春节回乡见闻_（二）汽车篇_28页_5mb

报告总结：中国汽车市场与消费趋势分析

行业投资评级： 行业相对指数表现
投资分析摘要：

1. 行业动态与政策环境：
   中央经济工作会议将扩大内需列为首要任务，政策导向强调短期稳增长。汽车作为国民经济支柱产业，尤其对新能源和智能驾驶领域有显著带动效应。2024年，中国汽车市场迎来电动化、智能化升级，新能源汽车渗透率加速突破临界点，L2+级别智能驾驶逐步下沉至中低端市场，价格战也促使传统车企与自主品牌竞争格局重塑。

2. 地区情况分析：

   • 菏泽市：第三产业占比快速提升，新能源汽车保有量高速增长（截至2024年市场渗透率达77%），本地油价优势明显，消费主力集中在10万元以下小型电动车，报废更新与补贴政策有效拉动新车购买。
   • 启东市：新能源汽车注册量迅速增长（南通地区渗透率领先全省5个百分点），政府加大补贴力度，价格亲民的A00级和自主品牌车型销售活跃，充电桩基础设施完善，消费者对智驾功能需求上升。
   • 六安市：新能源汽车零售额同比增速高达663%，自主品牌成为主力，元PLUS表现亮眼。通过汽车消费补贴，带动新车销售额超过40亿元，展现了低线城市市场潜力。
   • 西安市：作为新能源汽车制造重镇，比亚迪等龙头企业的产能持续扩张，带动产业链完善。2024年产量达110万辆，计划目标2025年突破150万辆，政策支持与产业集群效应显著。

3. 关键发现：

   • 电动化进程加速：各地市新能源汽车销量超越预期，展现出下沉市场的消费潜力。
   • 政策驱动产业升级：以旧换新补贴、充电设施建设、产业链支持政策推动新能源汽车渗透率明显提升。
   • 智能与价格是核心竞争点：消费者对智驾系统逐步看重，且市场继续由群众反馈驱动自有品牌迅速崛起。

4. 风险提示：

   • 外部环境政策变动：补贴退坡、原材料价格波动、工程周期延后等因素；
   • 市场竞争加剧：自主品牌与传统合资品牌之间竞争激烈，排产与交付节奏挑战仍存。

English Summary:

Industry Investment Rating: Auto industry underperforms broadly
Investment Summary:

1. Industry Trends and Policy Environment:
   The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized stimulating domestic demand, pushing for a short-term focus on stable growth. As a vital economic pillar, the auto industry drives growth in upstream and downstream sectors, especially within electric vehicle (EV) and intelligent driving fields. In 2024, the auto market is undergoing a structural transformation: the EV penetration rate is on the verge of crossing the 50% threshold, intelligent driving technology (L2+) is extending to the 150,000 yuan price segment, and the ongoing price war and technological advancements have reshaped competition among traditional and domestic brands.

2. Regional Analysis:

   • Heze City, Shandong: A rapidly developing service-oriented economy base, with a 77% EV penetration rate. Local oil prices’ affordability supports EV adoption, and the 2024 car scrapping subsidy significantly boosted sales.
   • Qidong City, Jiangsu: EVs are driving retail sales through high penetration and aggressive government subsidies. A growing infrastructure network of charging stations supports the market, backed by strong demand for intelligent driving functions from consumers.
   • Luan City, Anhui: Strong regional demand for low-price EVs, combined with increasing new-energy production capacity, allows auto-related manufacturing clusters to take shape. Auto scrapping subsidies directly contributed to nearly RMB 1 billion in sales growth.
   • Xi'an City, Shaanxi: Focused on tech-driven growth in EV manufacturing with world-class facilities and policies. Production increased 143% in 2024, with goals for over 150,000 EVs by 2025.

3. Key Highlights:

   • EV Adoption: Quickly accelerating in both tiers and low-tier cities, driven by affordability and regional policies.
   • Policies Driving Upgrades: Subsidies, charging infrastructure expansion, and industrial support all contribute to EV’s increasing share.
   • Intelligent Features & Pricing: Consumer preferences are shifting toward intelligent features and affordable brands, reflecting quality improvements and local R&D innovation.

4. Risks:

   • Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Raw material fluctuations, policy uncertainties, and export market competition risks.
   • Market Competition: High rivalry among domestic brands and foreign players could slow down some regional expansion plans.