城市研究所-2022年3月美国住房金融概览月刊（英）-44页_2mb

Summary of the March 2022 Housing Finance Policy Center Chartbook

Core Content

The March 2022 Housing Finance Policy Center (HFPC) Chartbook provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. housing finance market, focusing on mortgage origination, securitization, credit availability, and market trends. It highlights how the Federal Reserve's policies and economic conditions have shaped the market, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and the aftermath of the pandemic.

Main Points

Market Size Overview

• The total value of the U.S. residential housing market reached $40.6 trillion in Q4 2021, up 58.9% from the pre-crisis peak in 2006.
• Agency MBS account for 66.8% of total mortgage debt, while private-label securities and home equity loans account for 3.2% and 3.2% respectively.
• Unsecuritized first liens make up the remaining 26.8%, with banks accounting for 18.6%, credit unions for 4.7%, and other non-depositories for 3.7%.

Origination Volume and Composition

• Mortgage origination volume in 2021 reached $4.83 trillion, a record high, surpassing the $4.10 trillion in 2020.
• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains the dominant product, accounting for 77.4% of new originations in January 2022.
• The refinance share dropped significantly after April 2021, with GSE refi shares at 58-60% and Ginnie Mae at 33.2% in February 2022.

Cash-Out Refinances

• Cash-out refinances increased to 65.8% of refinance activity in February 2022, up from 25% in September 2020.
• Despite this increase, the absolute volume of cash-out refinances declined sharply since the spring of 2021 due to rising mortgage rates.
• Total home equity cashed out in 2021 was significant, but the trend has slowed.

Nonbank Origination Share

• The nonbank share of agency originations increased to 75.1% in February 2022, up from previous years.
• Ginnie Mae had the highest nonbank share at 92.7%, compared to 70.7% for Fannie Mae and 69.0% for Freddie Mac.
• Nonbank origination shares are higher for refinance activity than for purchase activity in the GSE and Ginnie Mae channels.

Securitization Volume and Composition

• The non-agency share of MBS issuance rose gradually from 1.83% in 2012 to 5.0% in 2019, then dropped to 2.44% in 2020 due to the pandemic.
• In Q4 2021, non-agency securitization volume reached $50.22 billion, up from $35.36 billion in Q4 2019 and $19.54 billion in Q4 2020.
• In January 2022, non-agency securitization volume was $15.98 billion, still significantly lower than pre-crisis levels.

Credit Box

• The Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI), which measures the likelihood of delinquency for purchase loans, stood at 5.2% in Q3 2021, up from 4.9% in Q3 2020.
• The GSE channel increased its credit availability from 1.4% in Q2 2011 to 2.7% in Q1 2020, then declined slightly to 2.56% in Q2 2021 and rose to 2.70% in Q3 2021.
• The government channel saw a peak in default risk in 2006 at 37.0%, but dropped to 24.5% in 2013 due to tight credit. It has since recovered to 31.4% in 2020.
• FICO scores for purchase loans increased in 2021 and early 2022, with a 10-point gap between banks and nonbanks in the GSE space, compared to a 22-point gap in the Ginnie Mae space.

Credit Availability for Purchase Loans

• The median FICO score for current purchase loans is 23 points higher than pre-crisis levels, at around 745.
• The 10th percentile FICO score (lower bound of creditworthiness) was 654 in December 2021, still higher than the low-600s pre-bubble levels.
• Combined LTV at origination remained high at 90%, reflecting increased FHA and VA lending.
• DTI trends showed a decline in 2020 and early 2021 due to lower rates, but reversed in 2021 with rising rates and home prices.

Racial & Ethnic Composition

• The minority share of purchase lending peaked at 37.0% in 2006 and dropped to 24.5% in 2013, recovering to 31.4% in 2020.
• Black borrowers received 16.3% of FHA loans, 12.8% of VA loans, 4.8% of GSE loans, and 4.0% of portfolio loans in 2020.
• Hispanic borrowers received 26.5% of FHA loans, 13.3% of VA loans, 11.2% of GSE loans, and 10.1% of portfolio loans in 2020.

Agency Nonbank Credit Box

• FICO scores for banks and nonbanks in the GSE and Ginnie Mae segments increased due to refinance activity from Q1 2019 to Q1 2021.
• Nonbank originators are now more accommodating to borrowers with lower credit scores.
• Median LTV for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, but DTI for nonbank loans is higher, especially in the Ginnie Mae space.

State of the Market

• Mortgage origination projections for 2022 are estimated between $2.63 to $3.27 trillion, down from $3.99 to $4.65 trillion in 2021.
• The refinance share is expected to be 22-24 percentage points lower in 2022 compared to 2021.
• Originator Profitability and Unmeasured Costs (OPUC) decreased to $2.38 per $100 loan in February 2022, reflecting increased competition and processed refinance backlogs.

Key Information

• Interest rates have risen significantly since the end of 2021, affecting mortgage affordability and home price appreciation.
• The impact of higher rates is expected to be muted due to strong economic fundamentals, including low unemployment and robust wage growth.
• The relationship between interest rates and house prices is slightly positive, with higher rates loosely associated with higher price appreciation.
• The HFPC encourages feedback and provides a biweekly newsletter for updates.
• The HCAI and credit availability data highlight the gradual recovery in credit access, especially for minority and lower FICO borrowers.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing finance market continues to evolve, with rising interest rates influencing origination volumes and refinance shares. While the market has seen a decline in certain areas, such as non-agency securitization and agency cash-out refinance volumes, credit availability has gradually improved. The role of nonbank lenders has grown, and the recovery of minority lending shares suggests a slow but steady improvement in access to housing credit.