城市研究所-《美国住房金融概览：月度图表》，2021年7月-36页_844kb

报告摘要

2021 July Chartbook Summary

Core Content

This chartbook provides an overview of the U.S. housing finance market, focusing on trends in mortgage origination, securitization, credit availability, affordability, and market conditions in the first half of 2021. It is a resource for policymakers, academics, and journalists to understand the government's role in mortgage markets.

Key Highlights

Market Size Overview

Total Value of the U.S. Residential Housing Market: Reached $36.0 trillion in Q1 2021, a 40.8% increase from the pre-crisis peak in 2006.
Mortgage Debt Outstanding: Increased slightly from $11.7 trillion in Q4 2020 to $11.8 trillion in Q1 2021.
Total Household Equity: Increased from $22.4 trillion to $24.2 trillion over the same period.
Mortgage Market Composition:
- Agency MBS: Accounted for 66.0% of total mortgage debt.
- Private Label Securities: 3.3%.
- Home Equity Loans: 3.6%.
- Unsecuritized First Liens: 27.1%, with banks, credit unions, and other non-depositories contributing 18.9%, 4.5%, and 3.7% respectively.
- Agency Market Share: In June 2021, Fannie Mae (42.5%), Freddie Mac (31.7%), and Ginnie Mae (25.8%) collectively accounted for $7.9 trillion in outstanding securities.

Origination Volume and Composition

First Lien Origination Volume in Q1 2021: $1.31 trillion.
Product Composition in May 2021:
- 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages: 75.6% of new originations.
- 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages: 15.8%.
- ARMs: 1.4%.
Refinance Share:
- GSE Refinance Share in June 2021: 60–64%.
- Ginnie Mae Refinance Share: 40.6%.
- Overall Refinance Share: Rose from 34% in Q3 2020 to 38% in Q1 2021, reflecting increased interest rates.
Cash-Out Refinances:
- Share of All Originations: 38% in Q1 2021.
- Total Home Equity Cashed Out: Rose slightly due to higher home prices, but equity take-out volumes were still lower than during the housing bubble years.
- Loan Amount After Refinancing: Increased as home prices rose, but the volume of equity extracted was still relatively low compared to the bubble.

Nonbank Origination Share

Nonbank Share of Agency Originations (June 2021): 78.0%.
- Fannie Mae: 72%.
- Freddie Mac: 76%.
- Ginnie Mae: 91.9%.
Nonbank Share for Purchase vs. Refi:
- Fannie Mae: Higher nonbank share for purchase activity.
- Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae: Higher nonbank share for refi activity.

Securitization Volume and Composition

Non-Agency MBS Issuance:
- 2020: Dropped to 2.44%.
- May 2021: Rose to 2.67%.
Non-Agency Securitization Volume (Q2 2021): $42.97 billion, an increase from Q2 2020.
Non-Agency Securitization: Remains significantly lower than pre-crisis levels.

Credit Box

Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI)

HCAI (Q4 2020): 5.1%, up slightly from a historic low of just below 5.0% in Q3 2020.
GSE Channel: Credit availability dropped from 2.7% in Q1 2020 to 2.5% in Q4 2020 due to market tightening.
Government Channel: Credit availability stood at 10.6% in Q4 2020, still well below the pre-bubble level of 19–23%.
Portfolio and Private Label Securities (PP) Channel: Total risk was 2.7% in Q4 2020, with product risk well below 0.5%.

Credit Availability for Purchase Loans

Median FICO Score (May 2021): Approximately 700, up about 40 points from the pre-crisis level.
10th Percentile FICO Score (May 2021): 650, higher than the low-600s pre-bubble.
Median LTV at Origination (May 2021): 95%, reflecting increased FHA and VA lending.
DTI at Origination:
- Lower in 2020 and 2021 due to falling mortgage rates.
- Rising in 2021 due to small rate increases and steep house price appreciation.

Credit Availability by MSA

FICO Scores and LTVs:
- San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA: Mean origination FICO was approximately 781.
- Lower FICO Scores are correlated with higher LTVs, as these MSAs rely heavily on FHA/VA financing.

State of the Market

Mortgage Origination Projections

2021 Origination Volume (Estimates): Between $3.47 and $4.20 trillion, lower than 2020's $3.83–$4.54 trillion.
Refinance Share (2021): Expected to be 8–9 percentage points lower than in 2020.
2021 Forecasts:
- Housing Starts: 1.55–1.62 million units.
- Home Sales: 6.26–7.10 million units.
- Both Forecasts: Higher than 2020 levels.

Housing Supply

Months of Supply (June 2021): 2.6, up from 1.9 in January 2021 but still historically low.
Housing Starts and Sales:
- Housing Starts (2017–2021): Increased from 1,203,000 in 2017 to 4,536,000 in 2020, with forecasts for 2021 at 1.55–1.62 million units.
- Home Sales (2017–2021): Ranged from 5,520,000 in 2017 to 6,260,000 in 2021.

Housing Affordability

Housing Affordability Challenges:
- House Prices: Rose rapidly in the first half of 2021, outpacing earnings growth.
- Core Inflation: Accelerated between February and April 2021, worsening affordability.
- Real House Price Growth: Continued to rise, while mortgage rates increased modestly.
- Income Growth: Lagged behind core inflation, reducing purchasing power.
Affordability Adjusted for MSA-Level DTI:
- Key Insight: Affordability remains a challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers and those with lower credit scores.

Home Price Indices

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth: Rose to over 17% in May 2021, well above the 12–13% peak during the housing bubble.
CoreLogic HPI for Top MSAs:
- High Growth: Seen in many major markets.
- New York MSA: The only market where monthly house price growth lagged core inflation in April 2021.

First-Time Homebuyers

First-Time Homebuyer Share (2021): Declined slightly from 18.1% in 2020 to 15.9% in Q1 2021.
Comparison with Repeat Buyers:
- GSE and FHA Originations: First-time buyers have less access to credit compared to repeat buyers.

Delinquencies and Loss Mitigation

Negative Equity Share: Continued to be a concern, especially in high-price MSAs.
Loans in Serious Delinquency/Foreclosure: Remained elevated due to the impact of the housing bubble and rising prices.
Forbearance Rates: Vary by channel, with nonbank originations showing higher rates.

GSEs under Conservatorship

GSE Portfolio Wind-Down:
- Fannie Mae: $11.7 trillion in Q4 2020.
- Freddie Mac: $11.8 trillion in Q1 2021.
Effective Guarantee Fees:
- Fannie Mae: Increased due to rising interest rates.
- Upfront Loan-Level Price Adjustment: Reflects changes in market conditions.
Risk-Sharing Transactions and Spreads:
- GSEs and Ginnie Mae: Continued to offer risk-sharing programs to support the market.

Agency Issuance

Agency Gross and Net Issuance (May 2021):
- Gross Issuance: $1.31 trillion.
- Net Issuance: Lower due to increased securitization and Fed purchases.
Fed Absorption of Agency Gross Issuance:
- Q1 2021: Increased due to Fed purchases, reflecting market conditions.

Mortgage Insurance Activity

MI Activity and Market Share:
- FHA MI Premiums for Typical Purchase Loan: Increased due to higher LTVs and DTIs.
- Initial Monthly Payment Comparison (FHA vs. PMI):
  - FHA: Higher payments due to higher LTVs and DTIs.
  - PMI: Still a more affordable option for some borrowers.

Key Insights

Affordability Challenges: Intensified due to rapid inflation and stagnant income growth.
Credit Availability: Remains tight, especially for lower FICO borrowers.
Market Trends:
- Refinance Activity: Declined as interest rates rose.
- Cash-Out Refinances: Increased slightly, but still lower than during the housing bubble.
Securitization: Non-agency MBS issuance rose in Q2 2021, but remains low compared to pre-crisis levels.
GSEs and Nonbanks: Nonbanks have a growing share in both purchase and refinance markets.
Housing Supply: Remains constrained, leading to continued price appreciation and affordability issues.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing finance market in 2021 shows signs of both growth and tightening. While mortgage rates and securitization volumes have increased, affordability remains a major concern, especially for first-time homebuyers. The role of nonbanks has expanded, and government support continues to be crucial in maintaining market stability. Addressing the housing supply shortage is essential to mitigate these affordability challenges.

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