2022-04-18-Urban_Institute-2022年3月美国住房金融概览月刊（英）_44页_4mb

2022 March Housing Finance Chartbook Summary

Core Content

This chartbook provides a detailed overview of the U.S. housing finance market, focusing on trends in mortgage origination, securitization, credit availability, and market affordability in March 2022.

Key Points

Market Size Overview

• Total U.S. Residential Housing Market Value: Reached $40.6 trillion in Q4 2021, up 58.9% from the pre-crisis peak in 2006.
• Mortgage Debt Outstanding: Increased slightly from $12.3 trillion in Q3 2021 to $12.5 trillion in Q4 2021.
• Total Household Equity: Rose from $26.9 trillion to $28.0 trillion.
• Mortgage Market Composition:
  • Agency MBS: Account for 66.8% of total mortgage debt.
  • Private-Label Securities: 3.2%.
  • Home Equity Loans: 3.2%.
  • Unsecuritized First Liens: 26.8% of total, with banks (18.6%), credit unions (4.7%), and other non-depositories (3.7%).

Origination Volume and Composition

• Mortgage Origination Volume in 2021: Reached a record of $4.83 trillion, surpassing 2020’s $4.10 trillion.
• 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Dominated the market, accounting for 77.4% of new originations in January 2022.
• Refinance Share: Declined significantly after April 2021 due to rising interest rates, reaching 58–60% for GSEs and 33.2% for Ginnie Mae in February 2022.
• Cash-Out Refinances: Increased to 65.8% of refinances in February 2022, but the absolute volume declined since 2021.

Nonbank Origination Share

• Nonbank Share of Agency Originations: Rose steadily since 2013, reaching 75.1% in February 2022.
• Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: Higher than GSEs, at 92.7%.
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Nonbank Shares: 70.7% and 69.0% respectively.
• Refi vs. Purchase Activity: Nonbank shares were higher for refi in Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac, while Fannie Mae had a slightly higher share for purchase loans.

Securitization Volume and Composition

• Non-Agency MBS Issuance: Increased from 2.44% in 2020 to 4.75% in January 2022, with non-agency securitization volume reaching $15.98 billion in January 2022.
• Securitization Trends: The non-agency share of securitizations increased gradually from 1.83% in 2012 to 5.0% in 2019, then dropped to 2.44% in 2020 due to pandemic-related disruptions.
• Non-Agency Securitization Volume: $50.22 billion in Q4 2021, significantly higher than Q4 2019 and Q4 2020.

Credit Box

• Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI): Stood at 5.2% in Q3 2021, up from 5.0% in Q3 2020.
• Credit Availability by Channel:
  • GSE Channel: Increased from 1.4% in Q2 2011 to 2.7% in Q1 2020, then dropped to 2.5% in Q4 2020.
  • Government Channel: Increased from 9.6% in Q3 2013 to 11.3% in Q3 2021.
• Purchase Loan Credit Availability:
  • Median FICO Score: Increased by 23 points compared to pre-crisis levels.
  • Median LTV: Remained high at 90%, reflecting FHA and VA lending.
  • DTI: Increased since March 2021, driven by higher rates and house price appreciation.

Racial and Ethnic Composition

• Minority Purchase Loan Share: Peaked at 37.0% in 2006, dropped to 24.5% in 2013, and recovered to 31.4% in 2020.
• Black Borrower Share:
  • FHA Loans: 16.3%.
  • VA Loans: 12.8%.
  • GSEs: 4.8%.
  • Portfolio Loans: 4.0%.
• Hispanic Borrower Share:
  • FHA Loans: 26.5%.
  • VA Loans: 13.3%.
  • GSEs: 11.2%.
  • Portfolio Loans: 10.1%.

State of the Market

• Origination Projections for 2022: Estimated between $2.63 and $3.27 trillion, down from 2021’s $3.99–$4.65 trillion.
• Refinance Share in 2022: Expected to be 22–24 percentage points lower than 2021.
• Originator Profitability and Unmeasured Costs (OPUC):
  • February 2022: OPUC was $2.38 per $100 loan, down from previous months.
  • Trend: OPUC is generally high when rates are low and refinance demand is strong, but drops when rates rise and competition forces lower pricing.

Housing Affordability

• Affordability Trends: Affordability has been impacted by rising rates, but historical data suggests it may not reduce house price appreciation to near zero.
• Affordability Adjusted for MSA-Level DTI: Highlighted the role of local economic conditions in determining affordability.

Home Price Indices

• National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth: Slight positive relationship with interest rates.
• CoreLogic HPI Changes in Top MSAs: Showed modest declines in house price appreciation.

Delinquencies and Loss Mitigation

• Negative Equity Share: Increased due to rising rates and slowing price growth.
• Serious Delinquency/Foreclosure Loans: Highlighted the impact of rising rates on delinquency rates.
• Forbearance Rates: Vary by channel, with a notable increase in the nonbank sector.

GSEs under Conservatorship

• GSE Portfolio Wind-Down:
  • Fannie Mae: $190.7 billion in February 2022.
  • Freddie Mac: $190.7 billion in February 2022.
• Effective Guarantee Fees: Highlighted the cost of government guarantees.
• Risk-Sharing Transactions: Reflect the GSEs’ strategies to manage risk and support market stability.

Mortgage Insurance Activity

• MI Activity and Market Share: Highlighted the role of mortgage insurance in the market.
• FHA MI Premiums: Compared to PMI for typical purchase loans, showing differences in cost and availability.

Special Feature: Loan-Level GSE Credit Data

• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Composition & Default Rates: Showcased the differences in loan types and default rates.
• Default Rates by Vintage: Indicated that older loans have higher default rates.
• Repurchase by Vintage: Highlighted the impact of loan age on risk and performance.

Related HFPC Work

• Impact of Higher Rates on Housing Market Fundamentals: Analyzed the effect of rising rates on affordability and house price growth.
• Historical Context: Noted that while higher rates can slow price growth, other factors like strong economic fundamentals and low unemployment can mitigate this impact.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing finance market in March 2022 shows a shift from the robust refinance activity of 2020 and 2021 to a more balanced market with increased focus on purchase lending. Nonbank origination has become a significant force, particularly in the Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac segments. Credit availability remains tight, especially for lower FICO borrowers, and the HCAI reflects a slight loosening in credit risk. While rising rates have impacted affordability and delinquency rates, the market is expected to stabilize due to strong economic fundamentals and increased home equity.