20161116-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2016.11.16_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed outlook for U.S. and Mexican sugar production, supply, use, and ending stocks for the fiscal years 2015/16 and 2016/17, based on the November 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It highlights the impact of production trends, import policies, and market dynamics on the sugar market.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Production

2016/17 Production: Projected at 9.331 million STRV, a 96,000 STRV decline from the previous month. However, it is expected to be a fiscal year production record.
Beet Sugar Production: Reduced by 97,000 STRV from the October projection to 5.371 million STRV. The decrease is due to a lower estimate of early-season beet sugar production, which was counted in the 2015/16 fiscal year.
Cane Sugar Production: Increased by 1,000 STRV to 3.960 million STRV, mainly due to higher yields in Florida, offset by a reduction in Louisiana.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use

2016/17 Supply: Estimated at 14.077 million STRV, an 85,000 STRV increase from the previous month.
Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.897 million STRV, up 135,000 STRV from the previous month. This is due to higher supplies and lower use.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Projected at 15.6%, up from 14.4% in October.

U.S. Sugar Use

Domestic Deliveries (Food and Beverage): Estimated at 11.905 million STRV for 2015/16, a 45,000 STRV decline from the previous month.
Total Use: Projected at 12.180 million STRV for 2016/17, a 50,000 STRV decrease from the previous month.
Cane Sugar Deliveries: Increased by 3.8% in 2015/16 compared to the previous year, continuing a trend since 2007/08.
Beet Sugar Deliveries: Remained relatively flat over the past 10 years, despite increasing supplies.

U.S. Sugar Imports

2015/16 Imports: Estimated at 3.341 million STRV, a 23,000 STRV decline from the previous month.
2016/17 Imports: Projected at 2.691 million STRV, an 12,000 STRV increase from the October projection.
Quota Imports: Remained at 1.533 million STRV.
Mexico Imports: Increased by 12,000 STRV in 2016/17, reflecting the inclusion of sugar that entered in October under a 2015/16 Export License.

Mexican Sugar Market

2016/17 Production: Projected at 6.300 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
Total Use: Projected at 6.109 million MT, with 4,784,000 MT for human consumption.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 1.238 million MT, up 227,000 MT from the previous month.
Stocks-to-Consumption Ratio: Increased to 27.8%, indicating more inventories relative to consumption.

Key Trends and Developments

Beet Sugar Supply Growth: Beet sugar production increased due to favorable weather in 2015 and 2016, leading to higher inventories.
Cane Sugar Market Dynamics: Cane sugar deliveries have grown steadily since 2007/08, while beet sugar deliveries have remained flat.
Market Spread: A significant price spread between cane and beet sugar emerged in 2015/16 (2.35 cents per pound), the largest since 2006/07.
Policy Impact: Import policies, such as the raw sugar TRQ and Export Limit with Mexico, have constrained sugar imports and influenced market supply.
Consumer Preferences and Labeling: Changes in consumer preferences and labeling requirements may be contributing to the price divergence between cane and beet sugar.
Decoupling of Markets: The U.S. sugar market is experiencing a divergence between cane and beet segments, which could lead to unsustainable outcomes if continued.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is showing signs of structural change, with beet and cane markets moving in different directions. While total sugar supplies and use are expected to remain within historical ranges, the separation of fundamentals between the two segments could lead to market imbalances and policy challenges. The price spread and inventory trends indicate that market forces and policy decisions are playing a significant role in shaping the future of the U.S. sugar industry.

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