2023-10-11-IMF-货币政策的僵尸借贷渠道（英）_62页_5mb

IMF Working Paper Summary: The Zombie Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

The IMF working paper identifies a new channel in the transmission of monetary policy to nonfinancial corporations: the zombie lending channel. This channel arises from the presence of unproductive and unviable (zombie) firms. The paper finds that tighter monetary policy leads to more favorable credit conditions for zombie firms relative to other firms, suggesting lenders engage in evergreening to avoid losses. This results in zombie firms cutting investment and employment by less than nonzombie firms.

Key Findings:

• Zombie firms are less responsive to monetary policy shocks due to evergreening by lenders.
• This channel is rationalized by a theoretical model showing banks offer better terms to high-debt, low-productivity firms when interest rates rise.
• Policies like stronger bank balance sheets, limited risky bank behavior, and efficient firm resolution laws may mitigate zombie lending.

Methodology:
The authors use high-frequency US monetary policy surprises to identify exogenous variation and employ a panel data Local Projection Instrumental Variable approach with Compustat data across 49 countries (23 EMs, 26 AEs) from 2000-2019. Robustness checks confirm findings using ten-year bond yields and alternative zombie definitions.

Conclusion:
Zombie lending mitigates monetary policy transmission to zombie firms but may harm overall productivity due to resource misallocation. Strengthening bank supervision and efficient insolvency regimes are recommended to reduce this effect.