2022-06-23-艾昆纬-2022年全球药物使用情况（英）_65页_7mb

Summary of The Global Use Medicines 2022: Outlook to 2026

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global medicine use and spending from 2021 to 2026, with a focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, innovation trends, and regional differences. It outlines the expected growth in the global medicine market, the role of vaccines and novel therapeutics, and the challenges and opportunities in both developed and pharmerging countries.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Global Spending Trends

• The global medicine market is expected to grow at 3–6% CAGR through 2026, reaching $1.8 trillion in total market size.
• Cumulative spending on COVID-19 vaccines through 2026 is projected to be $251 billion, with a significant portion focused on initial vaccinations, mostly completed by 2022 in developed countries and 2023 in lower income regions.
• Total global spending on medicines, including vaccines and therapeutics, is expected to exceed the pre-pandemic outlook by $133 billion by 2026.
• The U.S. market is forecast to grow at 0–3% CAGR, down from 3.5% CAGR in the previous five years.
• Japan will see flat to declining spending, shifting to annual price cuts.
• Europe is expected to increase spending by $51 billion over the next five years, with a focus on generics and biosimilars.

2. Impact of the Pandemic

• The pandemic caused a seven-year cumulative reduction in medicine spending of $175 billion compared to pre-pandemic projections.
• Medicine use was disrupted in some therapies in 2020, with varied timing and impact across countries, but has since returned to more stable patterns.
• Booster shots are now expected to be required annually or more frequently, especially as immunity durability and new viral variants remain a concern.
• Vaccine hesitancy and incomplete rollout in lower income countries have led to uneven vaccine coverage, which could contribute to new viral variants and prolonged pandemic effects.

3. Pharmerging Countries

• Pharmerging countries have experienced significant growth in medicine use over the past decade, but this trend is expected to slow and normalize by 2021.
• These countries are increasingly enabling access to newer medicines from multinational companies, leading to higher absolute growth despite slower rates.
• Lower income countries are expected to grow at 0.6% CAGR, while pharmerging countries are projected to grow at 2.0% CAGR.
• Per capita use of medicines is nearly double in developed countries compared to global averages, with lower income countries continuing to see declines in access.

4. Therapy Areas

• Oncology and immunology are the two leading therapy areas, expected to grow at 9–12% and 6–9% CAGR respectively.
• Oncology is projected to add 100 new treatments over five years, contributing $120 billion in new spending and reaching a $300 billion market by 2026.
• Immunology growth is expected to slow to 6–9% CAGR due to biosimilar impact, though volume growth remains steady at 12% annually.
• Diabetes spending growth is low single-digit in most developed markets and declining in the U.S. due to competitive subcategories and biosimilars.
• Mental health therapies have seen a gradual rise in usage, though less than expected, possibly due to social stigma and barriers to new treatments.

5. New Therapies and Innovation

• Next-generation biotherapeutics (cell-, gene-, and RNA-based) are expected to see 55–65 new therapies by 2026, with 12 per year on average, up from 3 per year in the past five years.
• Clinical and commercial uncertainty remains due to regulatory reviews and reimbursement levels.
• Rare neurological disorders, Alzheimer’s, and migraine are expected to drive spending growth in neurology.
• Scientific advances in genomics, biomarkers, diagnostics, and regenerative medicine are influencing innovation in mental health.

6. Long-Term Complications of COVID-19

• Post-COVID-19 conditions (PASC) are now recognized as a multi-organ syndrome, with 10–30% of patients potentially affected.
• Estimates vary widely due to different criteria used to assess PASC.
• The U.S. and India have the largest PASC populations, with 19.1 million and 15.5 million respectively.
• The long-term impact of the pandemic on chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, and heart disease is expected to be significant due to reduced physical activity and disrupted healthcare access.

7. Regional Variability

• Medicine use in pharmerging countries has been more variable since the start of the pandemic, but more stable in developed countries.
• Lower income countries are expected to recover to 109% of pre-pandemic volumes, while developed countries are at 103%.
• Egypt has seen a 30% decline in volumes due to an out-of-pocket payment model.

8. Uncertainty and Challenges

• Uncertainty about demand and use of medicines is greater than historical levels, driven by economic factors, policy shifts, and vaccine hesitancy.
• Cost and volume estimates for vaccines vary significantly, and booster shot usage will likely skew spending toward higher income countries.
• Antimicrobial resistance and alcohol-resistant microbes could result from excessive hand sanitizer use.
• Research into other pathogens is being accelerated by mRNA vaccine innovation, but vaccine hesitancy may extend to other vaccines, risking resurgence of previously controlled diseases.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while the pandemic has significantly impacted medicine use and spending, the long-term outlook for the global market is expected to return to pre-pandemic growth rates by 2025. Oncology and immunology will remain key drivers of growth, and specialty medicines will account for nearly 60% of spending in developed markets and 45% globally. Pharmerging countries are showing increased access to new treatments, though economic and policy pressures may slow growth. Long-term complications of the pandemic, particularly PASC, and chronic disease trends will continue to shape medicine use and spending in the coming years.