2024-02-27-艾昆纬-2024年全球药物使用情况（英）_62页_5mb

Global Medicine Spending Outlook

Global medicine spending is forecast to exceed pre-pandemic levels by $1.2 trillion by 2028, driven by post-pandemic recovery and market trends. Growth is sustained at 5-8% CAGR, reaching approximately $2.3 trillion. Key drivers include increased use of novel drugs and mix effects, with variations in spending and volume growth across regions.

Regional Highlights

• US: Market growth slowed to 2-5% CAGR on a net basis, averaging 5.3% previously. Spending increase of $299 billion by 2028, influenced by new brands but facing payer pressures and access restrictions.
• Europe: Predicted to grow by $70 billion, with biosimilars and new therapies shaping market changes, including impacts from exclusivity losses and policy reforms.
• China: Leading in volume-based growth due to its 1.4 billion population, aging demographic, and supportive policies, with original medicines as key drivers.
• Japan: Top-line spending managed at 1-2% CAGR through 2028, with concurrent policies supporting innovation while controlling costs.
• Latin America: Experiences volatility, driven by economic factors and policy changes, with forecasted growth rates ranging from 4-14% across countries.

Therapy Area Growth

Oncology and obesity are expected to lead with high growth rates (14-17% and 24-27% CAGR), while immunology and diabetes slow due to biosimilar impacts, with CNS disorders showing significant growth in neurology areas.

Key Drivers and Challenges

Spending growth is largely driven by mix (use of higher-cost novel drugs) rather than volume. Challenges include payer policies, loss of exclusivity, access restrictions, and evolving regulatory environments in key regions, which influence innovation and market entry.