艾昆纬-2029年全球药物使用展望（英）-2025.6_70页_2mb

Global Use of Medicines Outlook 2029: Key Insights

Report Overview

• Focus: Increasing access, use, and spending on medicines globally through 2029.
• Key Stakeholders: Health systems, governments, payers, life sciences industry.
• Methodology: Draws on IQVIA's MIDAS™ (20 years of global data) and Market Prognosis (10-year forecasts), applying WHO-defined unit doses and combining granular data with expert analysis.

Key Findings

🌍 1. Global Spending and Growth

• 2029 Projection: Global spending at $2.4Tn (5-8% CAGR), driven by 10 developed countries ($1.1T spending).
• Impact of Exclusivity Losses: $220Bn offset by biosimilar/brand erosion, slowing growth.
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  • Table: Global Spending Growth (2019–2024):
    • US: +6.8% CAGR (highest).
    • Europe: Average +4.5–7.5%.
    • Emerging Markets: Slower growth due to economic challenges.
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🧬 2. Novel Drugs & Specialty Medicines

• Biologics Growth: 42% of 2025 NAS launches are biologics (~$820Bn total spend by 2029).
• Specialty Medicines: ~46% of global spending by 2029, driven by costly, complex treatments.
• Cancer (Oncology): $252Bn (2024); 6% CAGR slowing due to biosimilars.
• GLP-1 Drugs: Obesity/diabetes expansion → ~$110Bn growth.
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🌎 3. Regional Breakdown (Selected Countries)

⚖️ 4. Key Drivers of Growth

• New Brands: Contribute $181Bn (Inflation-adjusted).
• PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors: Rapid uptake; $43Bn spending.
• Mix vs. Volume: Mix growth higher in developed markets (+80% share of spending).
• Exclusivity Losses: Small molecules (+$143.7Bn); Biologics (+$35.6Bn).
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⚠️ 5. Challenges & Uncertainties

• Access Barriers: LMICs have <20% of developed-country access.
• Antimicrobial Resistance: Antibacterial use mixed globally, progress stalled.
• COVID Aftermath: Europe $85Bn spending hit; recovery slow.

📅 Outlook to 2029

• Slower Growth: Post-COVID normalization; focus on value-based pricing.
• Cell & Gene Therapy: ~$14Bn spend (high uncertainty).
• Digital Health: Addressing healthcare fragmentation to improve access.

📌 Notes

• Data reflects invoice prices + off-invoice discounts.
• Definitions differ by region (e.g., PPP-adjusted GDP).
• 2025–2029 projections assume regulatory/HTA pressures persist.