安联：2023-2025年全球经济展望_21页_1mb

Report Overview: This Allianz Research publication from October 4, 2023, provides a global economic outlook for 2023-2025, focusing on economic growth, inflation, capital markets, and policy risks. It confirms that a recession was avoided but predicts historically low growth in the coming years due to high interest rates and demand pressures.

Growth Trends: Economic activity is expected to peak late in 2023 and early in 2024, with sub-trend growth subsequent years. US GDP growth for 2024 is forecast at 1.1% (lowest since 2009), Germany and France at 0.7%, and China decelerating to 4.7% in 2025. Emerging markets face further slowing, with risks of negative contributions to GDP from China and the EU.

Inflation and Interest Rates: Global inflation is projected to fall to about 4% in 2024 as monetary policy normalizes. Central banks, particularly the Fed, may start cutting rates in late 2024 after peak tightening, but actual rates may remain restrictive due to persistent inflation and economic uncertainties.

Capital Markets: Markets exhibit high uncertainty amid macroeconomic headwinds and microeconomic resilience. Bonds are expected to see limited movement, with potential for slight declines, while stocks may offer positive total returns averaging 7-10% over the next three years, driven by资产负债表strength but constrained by economic volatility.

Business and Bankruptcy: Companies face squeezed profitability due to weak demand and rising costs, leading to increased bankruptcies; emerging markets experience higher defaults, while developed economies slow decline. Credit risk persists, with spreads widening short-term but potentially narrowing amid policy adjustments.

Political and Geopolitical Factors: Upcoming elections in major economies introduce policy uncertainties, including potential fiscal rebalancing. Strategic industry policies, such as US subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act, heighten fragmentation in global trade and investment, risking inefficiencies and competition escalations.

Conclusion: Overall, the outlook highlights a challenging path with subdued growth, cautious monetary easing, and heightened risks from policy and geopolitical factors, requiring careful management of financial and economic vulnerabilities to avoid deeper downturns.